Today's Picks
About these picks
The day's highest-rated bets, priced where a market was captured. This app does not
place bets.
real — a price captured today.
recent — that player's average price for this bet over
the last 7 days.
illustrative — no market price, so the model's own fair
price. Zero edge by definition.
recent — that player's average price for this bet over the last 7 days.
illustrative — no market price, so the model's own fair price. Zero edge by definition.
2026-08-20 · top 10 per outcome
Top 10 per market yesterday: 2026-08-19 full record →
- Home Run 2/10
- Hit 8/10
- 2+ Total Bases 3/10
- Walk 3/10
Top Picks
The model's most likely picks for each outcome, before any comparison to the market
The naive picker ranks tonight's slate by each hitter's own rate over his last 30 games and takes the same top 10. No park, no pitcher, no weather — just who has been doing it lately.
Over 26 live slates the model's top 10 came in 21.9% against the naive picker's 16.5%. Picking a name at random would have come in 10.6%.
Beating random is not an achievement — nobody picks at random. This is the harder comparison, and on some markets it is close to 1.00×.
Every pick counted here was recorded before first pitch and never revised afterwards. The model is retrained through the season and whichever version is live makes that day's picks, so this record runs straight through those changes instead of restarting at each one.
10 picksPicks from the same game rise and fall together — one big inning lifts all of them, a shutout sinks all of them.
| Player | Pitcher | Model prob | Odds
Which price is this?
The median across every book quoting the market, not the best available. That makes the edge conservative: shopping around should beat this number, not fall short of it. The book count sits in the Source column. Which specific book offered it is not recorded — the fetcher stores a consensus, so line shopping is not done here. |
Source | vs this arsenal
vs this arsenal
His xwOBA against the pitch shapes tonight's starter throws, weighted by how often the pitcher uses each one. Then the gap versus his own overall xwOBA, and the same over his last 30 games. |
Hot hand
Hot hand
The strongest change in his last 30 games against his own last 100, favourable one first. An unfavourable move shows only when nothing moved in his favour, prefixed “against”. Not a model input — the deployed model carries no change features. |
Edge vs market
Edge vs market
The model's probability minus the one the bookmaker's price implies. Positive means the model rates it likelier than the market does. The bookmaker's margin is baked into that implied number, so every edge is nudged slightly negative. A small positive edge is noise, not an opportunity. |
1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murakami, Munetaka CHW
same game
3 HR last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Holmes, Grant ATL | 23.8% | +320 | illustrative | .532 -.010 | against: Bat speed -2% | — | 4.20 |
| Olson, Matt ATL
same game
3 HR last 10
|
Kay, Anthony CHW | 22.1% | +277 | recent | .454 +.009 | steady | -2.7pp | 3.77 |
| Caminero, Junior TB
cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Bieber, Shane TOR | 21.1% | +373 | illustrative | .420 +.009 | steady | — | 4.73 |
| Alvarez, Yordan HOU
Daikin Park plays hitter-friendly (114)platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Rodriguez, Grayson LAA | 21.0% | +235 | recent | .486 -.017 | steady | -6.9pp | 3.35 |
| Vargas, Miguel CHW
same game
3 HR last 10
hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Holmes, Grant ATL | 20.6% | +386 | illustrative | .360 -.011 30g .356 | steady | — | 4.86 |
| Bauers, Jake MIL
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Kirby, George SEA | 20.4% | +390 | illustrative | .440 -.012 30g .401 | steady | — | 4.90 |
| De La Cruz, Elly CIN
Great American Ball Park plays hitter-friendly (118)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
McGreevy, Michael STL | 20.2% | +380 | recent | .426 +.001 30g .406 | Bat speed +2% | +0.7pp | 4.80 |
| Acuña Jr., Ronald ATL
same game
platoon edge (RHB vs LHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Kay, Anthony CHW | 19.7% | +346 | recent | .418 | steady | -1.2pp | 4.46 |
| Alonso, Pete BAL
5 HR last 10
Oriole Park at Camden Yards plays hitter-friendly (110)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own normwind blowing in 8 mph
|
Cole, Gerrit NYY | 19.7% | +409 | illustrative | .532 +.054 30g .725 | Exit velo +2% | — | 5.09 |
| Rice, Ben NYY
3 HR last 10
Oriole Park at Camden Yards plays hitter-friendly (110)platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)wind blowing in 8 mph
|
Bradish, Kyle BAL | 19.3% | +335 | recent | .470 +.018 | steady | -2.2pp | 4.35 |
The naive picker ranks tonight's slate by each hitter's own rate over his last 30 games and takes the same top 10. No park, no pitcher, no weather — just who has been doing it lately.
Over 26 live slates the model's top 10 came in 71.5% against the naive picker's 62.7%. Picking a name at random would have come in 57.8%.
Beating random is not an achievement — nobody picks at random. This is the harder comparison, and on some markets it is close to 1.00×.
Every pick counted here was recorded before first pitch and never revised afterwards. The model is retrained through the season and whichever version is live makes that day's picks, so this record runs straight through those changes instead of restarting at each one.
10 picksPicks from the same game rise and fall together — one big inning lifts all of them, a shutout sinks all of them.
| Player | Pitcher | Model prob | Odds
Which price is this?
The median across every book quoting the market, not the best available. That makes the edge conservative: shopping around should beat this number, not fall short of it. The book count sits in the Source column. Which specific book offered it is not recorded — the fetcher stores a consensus, so line shopping is not done here. |
Source | vs this arsenal
vs this arsenal
His xwOBA against the pitch shapes tonight's starter throws, weighted by how often the pitcher uses each one. Then the gap versus his own overall xwOBA, and the same over his last 30 games. |
Hot hand
Hot hand
The strongest change in his last 30 games against his own last 100, favourable one first. An unfavourable move shows only when nothing moved in his favour, prefixed “against”. Not a model input — the deployed model carries no change features. |
Edge vs market
Edge vs market
The model's probability minus the one the bookmaker's price implies. Positive means the model rates it likelier than the market does. The bookmaker's margin is baked into that implied number, so every edge is nudged slightly negative. A small positive edge is noise, not an opportunity. |
1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson, Chandler TB
same game
10 hits last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot contact stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Bieber, Shane TOR | 73.1% | -272 | illustrative | .289 -.002 30g .277 | against: Bat speed -2% | — | 1.37 |
| Díaz, Yandy TB
same game
10 hits last 10
hot contact stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Bieber, Shane TOR | 70.7% | -241 | illustrative | .393 30g .417 | steady | — | 1.42 |
| Kwan, Steven CLE
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)wind blowing in 8 mph
|
Roupp, Landen SF | 69.3% | -246 | recent | .325 +.028 | steady | +2.7pp | 1.41 |
| Baldwin, Drake ATL | Kay, Anthony CHW | 69.2% | -250 | recent | .427 +.005 | steady | +2.3pp | 1.40 |
| Caminero, Junior TB same game | Bieber, Shane TOR | 69.0% | -223 | illustrative | .420 +.009 | steady | — | 1.45 |
| Walker, Jordan STL same game | Singer, Brady CIN | 68.7% | -245 | recent | .370 -.038 | against: Exit velo -4% | +2.2pp | 1.41 |
| García Jr., Luis NYY
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)wind blowing in 8 mph
|
Bradish, Kyle BAL | 68.3% | -259 | recent | .442 | Bat speed +2% | +0.8pp | 1.39 |
| Burleson, Alec STL
same game
9 hits last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Singer, Brady CIN | 68.3% | -218 | recent | .482 +.075 | steady | +4.1pp | 1.46 |
| Herrera, Iván STL same game | Singer, Brady CIN | 68.1% | -230 | recent | .352 | Exit velo +2% | +2.8pp | 1.43 |
| Wilson, Jacob ATH
cold contact stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Dobnak, Randy KC | 68.0% | -212 | illustrative | .290 -.013 | Barrel rate +70% | — | 1.47 |
The naive picker ranks tonight's slate by each hitter's own rate over his last 30 games and takes the same top 10. No park, no pitcher, no weather — just who has been doing it lately.
Over 26 live slates the model's top 10 came in 43.8% against the naive picker's 34.6%. Picking a name at random would have come in 32.3%.
Beating random is not an achievement — nobody picks at random. This is the harder comparison, and on some markets it is close to 1.00×.
Every pick counted here was recorded before first pitch and never revised afterwards. The model is retrained through the season and whichever version is live makes that day's picks, so this record runs straight through those changes instead of restarting at each one.
10 picksPicks from the same game rise and fall together — one big inning lifts all of them, a shutout sinks all of them.
| Player | Pitcher | Model prob | Odds
Which price is this?
The median across every book quoting the market, not the best available. That makes the edge conservative: shopping around should beat this number, not fall short of it. The book count sits in the Source column. Which specific book offered it is not recorded — the fetcher stores a consensus, so line shopping is not done here. |
Source | vs this arsenal
vs this arsenal
His xwOBA against the pitch shapes tonight's starter throws, weighted by how often the pitcher uses each one. Then the gap versus his own overall xwOBA, and the same over his last 30 games. |
Hot hand
Hot hand
The strongest change in his last 30 games against his own last 100, favourable one first. An unfavourable move shows only when nothing moved in his favour, prefixed “against”. Not a model input — the deployed model carries no change features. |
Edge vs market
Edge vs market
The model's probability minus the one the bookmaker's price implies. Positive means the model rates it likelier than the market does. The bookmaker's margin is baked into that implied number, so every edge is nudged slightly negative. A small positive edge is noise, not an opportunity. |
1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Witt Jr., Bobby KC
same game
platoon edge (RHB vs LHP)Kauffman Stadium suppresses offence (87)
|
Jump, Gage ATH | 49.4% | +101 | recent | .440 +.012 | steady | +2.9pp | 2.01 |
| Baldwin, Drake ATL
same game
cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Kay, Anthony CHW | 48.7% | +103 | recent | .427 +.005 | steady | +2.6pp | 2.03 |
| Caglianone, Jac KC
same game
Kauffman Stadium suppresses offence (87)
|
Jump, Gage ATH | 48.6% | +107 | recent | .565 +.123 | against: Chase rate +19% | +3.3pp | 2.07 |
| Burleson, Alec STL
same game
6 2+TB last 10
Great American Ball Park plays hitter-friendly (118)platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Singer, Brady CIN | 48.1% | +108 | illustrative | .482 +.075 | steady | — | 2.08 |
| De La Cruz, Elly CIN
Great American Ball Park plays hitter-friendly (118)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
McGreevy, Michael STL | 47.6% | +117 | recent | .426 +.001 30g .406 | Bat speed +2% | +4.5pp | 2.17 |
| Walker, Jordan STL
same game
Great American Ball Park plays hitter-friendly (118)
|
Singer, Brady CIN | 47.4% | +111 | illustrative | .370 -.038 | against: Exit velo -4% | — | 2.11 |
| Olson, Matt ATL same game | Kay, Anthony CHW | 46.6% | +104 | recent | .454 +.009 | steady | +0.6pp | 2.04 |
| Acuña Jr., Ronald ATL
same game
platoon edge (RHB vs LHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Kay, Anthony CHW | 46.1% | +109 | recent | .418 | steady | +1.4pp | 2.09 |
| Pasquantino, Vinnie KC
same game
7 2+TB last 10
Kauffman Stadium suppresses offence (87)
|
Jump, Gage ATH | 45.9% | +118 | illustrative | .304 -.058 | Bat speed +1% | — | 2.18 |
| Alvarez, Yordan HOU
Daikin Park plays hitter-friendly (114)platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Rodriguez, Grayson LAA | 45.7% | -107 | recent | .486 -.017 | steady | -2.7pp | 1.93 |
The naive picker ranks tonight's slate by each hitter's own rate over his last 30 games and takes the same top 10. No park, no pitcher, no weather — just who has been doing it lately.
Over 26 live slates the model's top 10 came in 41.2% against the naive picker's 36.9%. Picking a name at random would have come in 27.6%.
Beating random is not an achievement — nobody picks at random. This is the harder comparison, and on some markets it is close to 1.00×.
Every pick counted here was recorded before first pitch and never revised afterwards. The model is retrained through the season and whichever version is live makes that day's picks, so this record runs straight through those changes instead of restarting at each one.
10 picksPicks from the same game rise and fall together — one big inning lifts all of them, a shutout sinks all of them.
| Player | Pitcher | Model prob | Odds
Which price is this?
The median across every book quoting the market, not the best available. That makes the edge conservative: shopping around should beat this number, not fall short of it. The book count sits in the Source column. Which specific book offered it is not recorded — the fetcher stores a consensus, so line shopping is not done here. |
Source | vs this arsenal
vs this arsenal
His xwOBA against the pitch shapes tonight's starter throws, weighted by how often the pitcher uses each one. Then the gap versus his own overall xwOBA, and the same over his last 30 games. |
Hot hand
Hot hand
The strongest change in his last 30 games against his own last 100, favourable one first. An unfavourable move shows only when nothing moved in his favour, prefixed “against”. Not a model input — the deployed model carries no change features. |
Edge vs market
Edge vs market
The model's probability minus the one the bookmaker's price implies. Positive means the model rates it likelier than the market does. The bookmaker's margin is baked into that implied number, so every edge is nudged slightly negative. A small positive edge is noise, not an opportunity. |
1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murakami, Munetaka CHW
same game
6 walks last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Holmes, Grant ATL | 54.5% | -120 | illustrative | .532 -.010 | against: Bat speed -2% | — | 1.84 |
| Trout, Mike LAA | Lambert, Peter HOU | 45.4% | -105 | recent | .508 +.039 | against: Barrel rate -71% | -2.4pp | 1.95 |
| Eldridge, Bryce SF
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)wind blowing in 8 mph
|
Williams, Gavin CLE | 45.3% | +121 | illustrative | .448 +.030 | Chase rate -13% | — | 2.21 |
| Wetherholt, JJ STL
5 walks last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Singer, Brady CIN | 45.2% | +122 | recent | .310 -.073 | Chase rate -19% | +3.3pp | 2.22 |
| Rice, Ben NYY
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)wind blowing in 8 mph
|
Bradish, Kyle BAL | 44.2% | +118 | recent | .470 +.018 | steady | +1.5pp | 2.18 |
| Jensen, Carter KC
6 walks last 10
|
Jump, Gage ATH | 43.2% | +122 | recent | .333 -.059 | steady | +1.3pp | 2.22 |
| Rogers, Jake CHW same game | Holmes, Grant ATL | 43.2% | +131 | illustrative | .308 +.008 | against: Bat speed -1% | — | 2.31 |
| Bauers, Jake MIL
8 walks last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Kirby, George SEA | 43.1% | +132 | illustrative | .440 -.012 30g .401 | steady | — | 2.32 |
| Vargas, Miguel CHW same game | Holmes, Grant ATL | 42.9% | +133 | illustrative | .360 -.011 30g .356 | steady | — | 2.33 |
| DeLauter, Chase CLE
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)wind blowing in 8 mph
|
Roupp, Landen SF | 42.8% | +149 | recent | .386 +.021 | Barrel rate +49% | +5.4pp | 2.49 |
Best price
Of each market's top picks tonight, the one the market is pricing most generously — and why it stands out.
No captured prices for 2026-08-20 yet. This section fills in once the day’s odds are pulled. The picks above do not depend on it.