Model Performance
last 30 days with results · 30 game dates scored
Real results on real games. Every pick here was written and stored before its game was played. Everything below this card is history re-scored with today's models.
Perfect days counts days when every one of that day's top picks landed.
Picks predate the game date, but are re-scored during the day as lineups land — so not always before first pitch.
every live slate since 2026-07-25 · 26 scoredRank the slate by each hitter's trailing 30-game rate and take the same top N. No park, no pitcher, no weather — the hot hand alone.
The baseline worth beating; the population average flatters every model.
Rank the slate by each hitter's trailing 30-game rate and take the same top N. No park, no pitcher, no weather — the hot hand alone.
The baseline worth beating; the population average flatters every model.
Rank the slate by each hitter's trailing 30-game rate and take the same top N. No park, no pitcher, no weather — the hot hand alone.
The baseline worth beating; the population average flatters every model.
Rank the slate by each hitter's trailing 30-game rate and take the same top N. No park, no pitcher, no weather — the hot hand alone.
The baseline worth beating; the population average flatters every model.
| Market | random | top 1 | top 2 | top 3 | top 4 | top 5 | top 10 | top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Run | 11% | 31% 4.00× | 21% 1.83× | 18% 1.40× | 20% 1.17× | 21% 1.42× | 22% 1.33× | 16% 1.18× |
| Hit | 58% | 62% 0.76× | 67% 0.88× | 72% 1.04× | 72% 1.09× | 70% 1.08× | 72% 1.14× | 67% 1.06× |
| 2+ Total Bases | 32% | 42% 1.00× | 40% 1.05× | 37% 1.04× | 39% 1.08× | 39% 1.09× | 44% 1.27× | 43% 1.15× |
| Walk | 28% | 42% 1.22× | 38% 1.05× | 41% 1.03× | 41% 1.07× | 41% 1.06× | 41% 1.11× | 39% 1.07× |
| picks behind each | — | 26 | 52 | 78 | 104 | 130 | 260 | 520 |
The big number is how often those picks were right. The small number compares it to a naive picker: rank the slate by each hitter's trailing 30-game rate and take the same top N.
Below 1.00×, riding the hot hand would have done better.
Left-hand columns rest on few picks, so one result moves them several points.
| Market | all 1 | all 2 | all 3 | all 4 | all 5 | all 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Run | 8 of 26 | 0 vs 1.2 | 0 vs 0.2 | 0 vs 0.0 | 0 vs 0.0 | 0 vs 0.0 |
| Hit | 16 of 26 | 11 vs 11.8 | 8 vs 9.6 | 7 vs 7.0 | 5 vs 4.4 | 1 vs 0.9 |
| 2+ Total Bases | 11 of 26 | 4 vs 4.2 | 1 vs 1.3 | 0 vs 0.6 | 0 vs 0.2 | 0 vs 0.0 |
| Walk | 11 of 26 | 6 vs 3.8 | 3 vs 1.8 | 2 vs 0.8 | 0 vs 0.3 | 0 vs 0.0 |
| slates with that many picks | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
The big number is how many slates had every one of the top N right. The small number is roughly how many chance alone would produce.
Sweeping compounds, so these fall away fast with N: a market hitting 60% of its picks sweeps five about 8% of the time.
Picks on a slate share a park and a day's weather, so real sweeps should run a little above the chance figure.
A backtest: history re-scored with today's models, restricted to games played after each model was trained — so nothing here was used to build it.
Still a re-scoring rather than a live forecast. The actual-results section above is the real record.
Where the pick count is small, treat it as a hint.
106 slates re-scored · 2026-05-03 to 2026-08-19 · not a live recordYes/No is what happened that day.
The tick and cross repeat it, so the column is easier to scan. They do not mean the model was right or wrong — a low prediction followed by a No is a good call.
| Batter | Pitcher | Home Run — predicted | Home Run — actual | Hit — predicted | Hit — actual | 2+ Total Bases — predicted | 2+ Total Bases — actual | Walk — predicted | Walk — actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abrams, CJ | Rocker, Kumar | 17.8% | No ✗ | 63.9% | Yes ✓ | 40.5% | Yes ✓ | 34.4% | No ✗ |
| Abreu, Wilyer | Pfaadt, Brandon | 18.2% | No ✗ | 69.0% | Yes ✓ | 45.0% | No ✗ | 38.0% | Yes ✓ |
| Acuña Jr., Ronald | Bradley, Taj | 18.8% | No ✗ | 63.3% | Yes ✓ | 37.3% | No ✗ | 33.1% | No ✗ |
| Adames, Willy | Messick, Parker | 12.5% | No ✗ | 60.0% | Yes ✓ | 34.5% | Yes ✓ | 26.1% | No ✗ |
| Albies, Ozzie | Bradley, Taj | 7.6% | No ✗ | 63.6% | Yes ✓ | 30.3% | Yes ✓ | 20.6% | No ✗ |
| Allen, Nick | Ureña, Walbert | 4.5% | No ✗ | 51.4% | No ✗ | 27.7% | No ✗ | 20.0% | No ✗ |
| Alonso, Pete | Warren, Will | 21.6% | Yes ✓ | 68.4% | Yes ✓ | 46.5% | Yes ✓ | 42.1% | No ✗ |
| Altuve, Jose | Ureña, Walbert | 8.4% | No ✗ | 60.2% | Yes ✓ | 34.0% | Yes ✓ | 25.7% | No ✗ |
| Alvarez, Francisco | King, Michael | 14.5% | No ✗ | 55.7% | No ✗ | 27.5% | No ✗ | 35.5% | No ✗ |
| Alvarez, Yordan | Ureña, Walbert | 19.5% | No ✗ | 65.5% | Yes ✓ | 40.8% | No ✗ | 39.9% | No ✗ |
| Amador, Adael | Sasaki, Roki | 5.9% | No ✗ | 55.3% | Yes ✓ | 24.0% | Yes ✓ | 28.1% | No ✗ |
| Antonacci, Sam | Holmes, Clay | 8.2% | No ✗ | 62.5% | No ✗ | 31.5% | No ✗ | 34.9% | Yes ✓ |
| Aranda, Jonathan | Scherzer, Max | 15.4% | No ✗ | 66.7% | No ✗ | 42.5% | No ✗ | 31.5% | No ✗ |
| Arenado, Nolan | Tolle, Payton | 11.7% | No ✗ | 60.5% | Yes ✓ | 35.1% | Yes ✓ | 24.0% | No ✗ |
| Arozarena, Randy | May, Dustin | 13.6% | No ✗ | 65.2% | Yes ✓ | 39.0% | No ✗ | 33.1% | No ✗ |
| Arraez, Luis | Alcantara, Sandy | 4.7% | Yes ✓ | 73.7% | Yes ✓ | 48.6% | Yes ✓ | 20.5% | No ✗ |
| Baldwin, Drake | Bradley, Taj | 14.5% | No ✗ | 65.0% | No ✗ | 40.4% | No ✗ | 35.4% | No ✗ |
| Basabe, Osleivis | Messick, Parker | 11.5% | No ✗ | 56.6% | No ✗ | 33.2% | No ✗ | 16.6% | No ✗ |
| Bateman, Brett | Rasmussen, Drew | 4.1% | No ✗ | 61.7% | No ✗ | 32.1% | No ✗ | 19.4% | No ✗ |
| Baty, Brett | King, Michael | 13.6% | No ✗ | 52.9% | No ✗ | 30.4% | No ✗ | 28.2% | No ✗ |
| Bauers, Jake | Gilbert, Logan | 19.4% | No ✗ | 61.0% | No ✗ | 31.8% | No ✗ | 42.0% | No ✗ |
| Beavers, Dylan | Warren, Will | 12.0% | Yes ✓ | 54.4% | Yes ✓ | 36.0% | Yes ✓ | 29.6% | Yes ✓ |
| Beck, Jordan | Sasaki, Roki | 12.2% | No ✗ | 55.0% | No ✗ | 37.7% | No ✗ | 26.6% | No ✗ |
| Bell, Josh | Smith-Shawver, AJ | 16.1% | No ✗ | 66.4% | Yes ✓ | 35.0% | Yes ✓ | 27.7% | Yes ✓ |
| Benge, Carson | King, Michael | 13.1% | Yes ✓ | 62.9% | Yes ✓ | 28.6% | Yes ✓ | 26.1% | No ✗ |
| Benintendi, Andrew | Holmes, Clay | 10.9% | No ✗ | 53.9% | Yes ✓ | 37.4% | No ✗ | 17.2% | Yes ✓ |
| Bericoto, Victor | Messick, Parker | 14.2% | No ✗ | 59.7% | Yes ✓ | 45.6% | No ✗ | 26.1% | No ✗ |
| Betts, Mookie | Freeland, Kyle | 12.0% | Yes ✓ | 72.3% | Yes ✓ | 40.8% | Yes ✓ | 28.9% | No ✗ |
| Bichette, Bo | King, Michael | 13.6% | No ✗ | 67.2% | No ✗ | 40.3% | No ✗ | 38.5% | Yes ✓ |
| Bleday, JJ | Liberatore, Matthew | 17.3% | No ✗ | 63.2% | No ✗ | 35.6% | No ✗ | 40.9% | No ✗ |
| Bogaerts, Xander | Stock, Robert | 12.5% | No ✗ | 61.0% | Yes ✓ | 45.3% | Yes ✓ | 25.0% | No ✗ |
| Bohm, Alec | Alcantara, Sandy | 13.5% | No ✗ | 69.0% | No ✗ | 27.1% | No ✗ | 27.3% | No ✗ |
| Burleson, Alec | Burns, Chase | 17.0% | No ✗ | 63.9% | Yes ✓ | 25.7% | No ✗ | 19.1% | Yes ✓ |
| Buxton, Byron | Smith-Shawver, AJ | 22.0% | No ✗ | 63.1% | No ✗ | 23.5% | No ✗ | 25.6% | Yes ✓ |
| Báez, Joshua | Burns, Chase | 15.5% | No ✗ | 55.4% | Yes ✓ | 29.6% | No ✗ | 30.8% | Yes ✓ |
| Caissie, Owen | Nola, Aaron | 9.9% | No ✗ | 56.6% | No ✗ | 27.4% | No ✗ | 18.8% | No ✗ |
| Cameron, Daz | Rasmussen, Drew | 9.8% | No ✗ | 53.9% | Yes ✓ | 35.6% | No ✗ | 39.7% | No ✗ |
| Caminero, Junior | Scherzer, Max | 22.2% | No ✗ | 67.2% | Yes ✓ | 41.9% | Yes ✓ | 34.5% | No ✗ |
| Campusano, Luis | Stock, Robert | 12.7% | No ✗ | 57.9% | No ✗ | 43.3% | No ✗ | 33.8% | Yes ✓ |
| Canzone, Dominic | May, Dustin | 17.7% | No ✗ | 67.1% | Yes ✓ | 40.0% | Yes ✓ | 35.0% | Yes ✓ |
| Caratini, Victor | Smith-Shawver, AJ | 11.2% | No ✗ | 52.8% | No ✗ | 29.3% | No ✗ | 32.5% | Yes ✓ |
| Carrigg, Cole | Sasaki, Roki | 12.3% | No ✗ | 68.6% | Yes ✓ | 44.9% | No ✗ | 30.5% | No ✗ |
| Carroll, Corbin | Tolle, Payton | 13.9% | No ✗ | 65.1% | Yes ✓ | 21.8% | No ✗ | 19.1% | Yes ✓ |
| Carter, Evan | Cavalli, Cade | 8.7% | No ✗ | 53.6% | Yes ✓ | 30.4% | No ✗ | 28.7% | No ✗ |
| Castro, Willi | Sasaki, Roki | 15.4% | No ✗ | 65.6% | No ✗ | 35.6% | No ✗ | 28.1% | No ✗ |
| Cavanaugh, Drew | Messick, Parker | 5.5% | No ✗ | 54.8% | No ✗ | 29.6% | No ✗ | 17.6% | No ✗ |
| Chaparro, Andrés | Rocker, Kumar | 15.0% | Yes ✓ | 56.9% | Yes ✓ | 28.8% | Yes ✓ | 17.4% | No ✗ |
| Chourio, Jackson | Gilbert, Logan | 16.8% | No ✗ | 63.4% | Yes ✓ | 33.3% | Yes ✓ | 15.1% | No ✗ |
| Church, Nathan | Burns, Chase | 9.8% | No ✗ | 60.4% | Yes ✓ | 25.4% | No ✗ | 30.7% | No ✗ |
| Clark, Max | Skenes, Paul | 7.6% | No ✗ | 57.1% | Yes ✓ | 36.2% | Yes ✓ | 28.6% | No ✗ |
| Clemens, Kody | Smith-Shawver, AJ | 18.1% | No ✗ | 64.2% | Yes ✓ | 31.7% | Yes ✓ | 31.8% | No ✗ |
| Conine, Griffin | Nola, Aaron | 13.4% | No ✗ | 60.9% | No ✗ | 26.6% | No ✗ | 16.2% | No ✗ |
| Contreras, William | Gilbert, Logan | 13.9% | No ✗ | 64.4% | No ✗ | 36.1% | No ✗ | 17.0% | Yes ✓ |
| Contreras, Willson | Pfaadt, Brandon | 19.2% | No ✗ | 64.3% | Yes ✓ | 42.7% | Yes ✓ | 31.0% | No ✗ |
| Cowser, Colton | Warren, Will | 14.2% | No ✗ | 54.4% | No ✗ | 35.1% | No ✗ | 34.5% | No ✗ |
| Cox, Jonah | Messick, Parker | 5.6% | No ✗ | 51.0% | No ✗ | 27.3% | No ✗ | 17.2% | No ✗ |
| Crawford, Justin | Alcantara, Sandy | 4.7% | No ✗ | 56.8% | Yes ✓ | 25.7% | No ✗ | 44.2% | No ✗ |
| Crews, Dylan | Rocker, Kumar | 15.4% | No ✗ | 64.8% | No ✗ | 33.3% | No ✗ | 22.5% | No ✗ |
| Cronenworth, Jake | Stock, Robert | 9.2% | No ✗ | 62.0% | No ✗ | 33.3% | No ✗ | 20.1% | Yes ✓ |
| Crooks, Jimmy | Burns, Chase | 12.5% | No ✗ | 49.7% | No ✗ | 43.2% | No ✗ | 40.3% | No ✗ |
| Cruz, Oneil | Jobe, Jackson | 16.6% | No ✗ | 64.4% | Yes ✓ | 33.4% | No ✗ | 16.8% | Yes ✓ |
| Culpepper, Kaelen | Smith-Shawver, AJ | 10.8% | No ✗ | 51.6% | Yes ✓ | 37.6% | Yes ✓ | 29.6% | No ✗ |
| Davis, Henry | Jobe, Jackson | 11.4% | No ✗ | 55.9% | No ✗ | 38.9% | No ✗ | 18.4% | Yes ✓ |
| De La Cruz, Elly | Liberatore, Matthew | 19.5% | No ✗ | 66.6% | Yes ✓ | 37.8% | No ✗ | 31.6% | No ✗ |
| DeLuca, Jonny | Scherzer, Max | 11.3% | No ✗ | 59.8% | Yes ✓ | 35.3% | No ✗ | 22.4% | No ✗ |
| Devers, Rafael | Messick, Parker | 17.1% | No ✗ | 63.7% | Yes ✓ | 39.0% | Yes ✓ | 21.3% | No ✗ |
| Dingler, Dillon | Skenes, Paul | 11.9% | No ✗ | 61.4% | No ✗ | 33.5% | No ✗ | 20.7% | No ✗ |
| Donovan, Brendan | May, Dustin | 9.4% | No ✗ | 66.3% | Yes ✓ | 43.4% | Yes ✓ | 26.6% | Yes ✓ |
| Dubón, Mauricio | Bradley, Taj | 5.0% | No ✗ | 62.3% | Yes ✓ | 38.7% | No ✗ | 20.0% | No ✗ |
| Duran, Ezequiel | Cavalli, Cade | 12.3% | No ✗ | 59.2% | No ✗ | 29.4% | No ✗ | 38.5% | No ✗ |
| Duran, Jarren | Pfaadt, Brandon | 11.9% | Yes ✓ | 62.6% | Yes ✓ | 38.9% | Yes ✓ | 41.9% | No ✗ |
| Durbin, Caleb | Pfaadt, Brandon | 7.1% | No ✗ | 67.0% | No ✗ | 27.1% | No ✗ | 19.8% | No ✗ |
| Díaz, Elias | Cavalli, Cade | 12.2% | No ✗ | 56.2% | Yes ✓ | 39.2% | No ✗ | 18.6% | No ✗ |
| Díaz, Yandy | Scherzer, Max | 14.4% | Yes ✓ | 69.2% | Yes ✓ | 37.6% | Yes ✓ | 37.7% | Yes ✓ |
| Edwards, Xavier | Nola, Aaron | 5.0% | No ✗ | 66.1% | Yes ✓ | 26.5% | Yes ✓ | 32.0% | No ✗ |
| Eldridge, Bryce | Messick, Parker | 15.1% | No ✗ | 61.9% | No ✗ | 30.5% | No ✗ | 16.4% | No ✗ |
| Encarnacion-Strand, Christian | Warren, Will | 16.8% | No ✗ | 62.1% | No ✗ | 27.6% | No ✗ | 17.2% | No ✗ |
| Ewing, A.J. | King, Michael | 12.0% | No ✗ | 60.9% | Yes ✓ | 27.6% | No ✗ | 26.2% | Yes ✓ |
| Fermín, José | Burns, Chase | 6.0% | No ✗ | 56.8% | Yes ✓ | 34.9% | Yes ✓ | 31.9% | No ✗ |
| Fernandez, Jose | Tolle, Payton | 9.1% | No ✗ | 53.3% | Yes ✓ | 27.4% | Yes ✓ | 23.0% | Yes ✓ |
| France, Ty | Stock, Robert | 16.8% | No ✗ | 63.9% | Yes ✓ | 37.3% | Yes ✓ | 34.0% | Yes ✓ |
| Freeman, Cody | Cavalli, Cade | 4.9% | No ✗ | 53.8% | No ✗ | 28.9% | No ✗ | 15.0% | No ✗ |
| Freeman, Freddie | Freeland, Kyle | 13.0% | No ✗ | 74.4% | Yes ✓ | 40.0% | Yes ✓ | 25.5% | No ✗ |
| Friedl, TJ | Liberatore, Matthew | 7.4% | No ✗ | 52.5% | No ✗ | 32.3% | No ✗ | 19.8% | No ✗ |
| Gasper, Mickey | Pfaadt, Brandon | 8.9% | Yes ✓ | 62.9% | Yes ✓ | 36.8% | Yes ✓ | 23.9% | No ✗ |
| Gilbert, Drew | Messick, Parker | 8.6% | No ✗ | 60.4% | No ✗ | 22.6% | No ✗ | 22.4% | No ✗ |
| Giménez, Andrés | Rasmussen, Drew | 4.8% | No ✗ | 59.6% | No ✗ | 42.4% | No ✗ | 40.8% | No ✗ |
| Gonzales, Nick | Jobe, Jackson | 7.0% | No ✗ | 68.1% | Yes ✓ | 31.6% | Yes ✓ | 16.1% | Yes ✓ |
| Gonzalez, Jacob | Jobe, Jackson | 8.9% | No ✗ | 58.6% | Yes ✓ | 35.6% | No ✗ | 22.4% | No ✗ |
| Harper, Bryce | Alcantara, Sandy | 15.6% | No ✗ | 66.9% | Yes ✓ | 42.7% | No ✗ | 23.1% | Yes ✓ |
| Harris II, Michael | Bradley, Taj | 11.5% | No ✗ | 64.3% | Yes ✓ | 34.3% | No ✗ | 32.3% | No ✗ |
| Henderson, Gunnar | Warren, Will | 15.2% | No ✗ | 67.0% | Yes ✓ | 32.3% | Yes ✓ | 18.8% | Yes ✓ |
| Hernández, Enrique | Freeland, Kyle | 11.9% | Yes ✓ | 58.1% | Yes ✓ | 37.4% | Yes ✓ | 35.8% | No ✗ |
| Hernández, Heriberto | Nola, Aaron | 15.3% | No ✗ | 60.3% | Yes ✓ | 39.6% | No ✗ | 42.9% | No ✗ |
| Hernández, Teoscar | Freeland, Kyle | 14.2% | No ✗ | 64.7% | Yes ✓ | 39.9% | No ✗ | 23.4% | Yes ✓ |
| Herrera, Iván | Burns, Chase | 13.6% | No ✗ | 64.5% | No ✗ | 32.9% | No ✗ | 18.6% | Yes ✓ |
| Hicks, Liam | Scherzer, Max | 8.8% | No ✗ | 63.0% | Yes ✓ | 32.2% | Yes ✓ | 33.5% | No ✗ |
| Holliday, Jackson | Warren, Will | 11.2% | No ✗ | 63.7% | No ✗ | 17.6% | No ✗ | 21.3% | Yes ✓ |
| Horwitz, Spencer | Jobe, Jackson | 7.5% | No ✗ | 65.8% | No ✗ | 35.1% | No ✗ | 27.8% | No ✗ |
| House, Brady | Rocker, Kumar | 13.5% | No ✗ | 61.9% | No ✗ | 36.7% | No ✗ | 25.2% | No ✗ |
| Jarvis, Jim | Bradley, Taj | 5.0% | No ✗ | 54.8% | No ✗ | 33.1% | No ✗ | 23.9% | Yes ✓ |
| Jeffers, Ryan | Smith-Shawver, AJ | 15.3% | No ✗ | 64.5% | No ✗ | 30.3% | No ✗ | 23.6% | No ✗ |
| Jones, Jahmai | Pfaadt, Brandon | 12.6% | No ✗ | 59.6% | No ✗ | 31.3% | No ✗ | 27.2% | No ✗ |
| Jordan, Blaze | Burns, Chase | 10.7% | No ✗ | 60.0% | Yes ✓ | 27.9% | No ✗ | 19.0% | Yes ✓ |
| Keaschall, Luke | Smith-Shawver, AJ | 7.8% | No ✗ | 63.6% | Yes ✓ | 39.2% | Yes ✓ | 36.0% | No ✗ |
| Keith, Colt | Skenes, Paul | 10.6% | No ✗ | 57.3% | Yes ✓ | 32.3% | No ✗ | 31.3% | Yes ✓ |
| Kelenic, Jarred | Cavalli, Cade | 13.4% | No ✗ | 50.1% | No ✗ | 27.4% | No ✗ | 25.1% | Yes ✓ |
| Kirk, Alejandro | Rasmussen, Drew | 14.2% | Yes ✓ | 64.7% | Yes ✓ | 43.6% | Yes ✓ | 41.1% | No ✗ |
| Koss, Christian | Messick, Parker | 5.2% | No ✗ | 53.8% | No ✗ | 24.2% | No ✗ | 19.7% | No ✗ |
| Langford, Wyatt | Cavalli, Cade | 15.4% | No ✗ | 63.3% | No ✗ | 29.6% | No ✗ | 22.3% | No ✗ |
| Lara, Luis | Gilbert, Logan | 8.3% | No ✗ | 61.3% | Yes ✓ | 42.0% | No ✗ | 30.9% | No ✗ |
| Larnach, Trevor | Smith-Shawver, AJ | 13.2% | No ✗ | 63.3% | No ✗ | 36.5% | No ✗ | 19.5% | No ✗ |
| Lawlar, Jordan | Tolle, Payton | 5.4% | No ✗ | 52.8% | No ✗ | 43.7% | No ✗ | 40.2% | No ✗ |
| Lee, Brooks | Smith-Shawver, AJ | 10.2% | No ✗ | 62.6% | Yes ✓ | 25.3% | No ✗ | 23.4% | No ✗ |
| Lee, Hao-Yu | Skenes, Paul | 7.9% | No ✗ | 52.1% | Yes ✓ | 21.3% | No ✗ | 33.8% | Yes ✓ |
| Lee, Jung Hoo | Messick, Parker | 8.8% | No ✗ | 68.0% | Yes ✓ | 40.4% | Yes ✓ | 20.4% | No ✗ |
| Lewis, Royce | Smith-Shawver, AJ | 18.0% | No ✗ | 64.4% | Yes ✓ | 40.5% | No ✗ | 27.9% | No ✗ |
| Lile, Daylen | Rocker, Kumar | 14.3% | No ✗ | 64.9% | No ✗ | 30.6% | No ✗ | 18.5% | No ✗ |
| Lindor, Francisco | King, Michael | 17.9% | No ✗ | 64.8% | Yes ✓ | 31.8% | No ✗ | 19.3% | No ✗ |
| Lopez, Nicky | Cavalli, Cade | 3.7% | No ✗ | 54.7% | No ✗ | 33.7% | No ✗ | 16.4% | No ✗ |
| Lopez, Otto | Nola, Aaron | 6.5% | No ✗ | 67.1% | Yes ✓ | 46.9% | No ✗ | 22.5% | Yes ✓ |
| Lowe, Brandon | Jobe, Jackson | 16.5% | Yes ✓ | 64.0% | Yes ✓ | 25.9% | Yes ✓ | 24.0% | Yes ✓ |
| Lukes, Nathan | Rasmussen, Drew | 5.9% | No ✗ | 65.4% | No ✗ | 37.0% | No ✗ | 34.2% | No ✗ |
| Machado, Manny | Stock, Robert | 18.3% | No ✗ | 66.0% | No ✗ | 30.5% | No ✗ | 24.3% | No ✗ |
| Mack, Joe | Nola, Aaron | 9.6% | No ✗ | 57.1% | No ✗ | 35.3% | No ✗ | 32.5% | No ✗ |
| Marsee, Jakob | Nola, Aaron | 7.0% | No ✗ | 57.3% | No ✗ | 31.3% | No ✗ | 32.0% | No ✗ |
| Marsh, Brandon | Alcantara, Sandy | 14.8% | No ✗ | 64.1% | Yes ✓ | 44.4% | Yes ✓ | 20.7% | No ✗ |
| Mayo, Coby | Warren, Will | 18.9% | No ✗ | 62.9% | No ✗ | 29.3% | No ✗ | 32.0% | No ✗ |
| McAdoo, Charles | Rasmussen, Drew | 11.7% | No ✗ | 54.8% | Yes ✓ | 39.3% | Yes ✓ | 26.0% | No ✗ |
| McCann, James | Tolle, Payton | 11.1% | No ✗ | 60.0% | No ✗ | 39.2% | No ✗ | 31.4% | Yes ✓ |
| McCarthy, Jake | Sasaki, Roki | 11.0% | No ✗ | 70.4% | Yes ✓ | 34.9% | No ✗ | 24.1% | Yes ✓ |
| McGonigle, Kevin | Skenes, Paul | 10.9% | No ✗ | 65.1% | Yes ✓ | 34.1% | Yes ✓ | 53.4% | No ✗ |
| McKinstry, Zach | Skenes, Paul | 4.1% | No ✗ | 54.9% | Yes ✓ | 37.8% | No ✗ | 32.6% | Yes ✓ |
| McLain, Matt | Liberatore, Matthew | 13.1% | No ✗ | 57.3% | Yes ✓ | 34.1% | Yes ✓ | 24.3% | No ✗ |
| Meidroth, Chase | Holmes, Clay | 7.8% | No ✗ | 61.9% | Yes ✓ | 23.3% | No ✗ | 19.5% | No ✗ |
| Merrill, Jackson | Stock, Robert | 17.9% | No ✗ | 63.0% | No ✗ | 41.6% | No ✗ | 24.6% | No ✗ |
| Monasterio, Andruw | Pfaadt, Brandon | 8.5% | No ✗ | 64.5% | No ✗ | 33.7% | No ✗ | 32.8% | No ✗ |
| Moniak, Mickey | Sasaki, Roki | 19.6% | Yes ✓ | 64.1% | Yes ✓ | 23.9% | Yes ✓ | 28.6% | No ✗ |
| Montgomery, Braden | Holmes, Clay | 8.9% | No ✗ | 59.8% | Yes ✓ | 38.0% | Yes ✓ | 35.3% | No ✗ |
| Montgomery, Colson | Holmes, Clay | 16.0% | No ✗ | 59.5% | Yes ✓ | 48.5% | No ✗ | 27.5% | No ✗ |
| Moreno, Gabriel | Tolle, Payton | 11.5% | No ✗ | 66.9% | Yes ✓ | 32.5% | Yes ✓ | 23.7% | Yes ✓ |
| Mullins, Cedric | Scherzer, Max | 10.6% | No ✗ | 62.5% | No ✗ | 36.0% | No ✗ | 38.8% | Yes ✓ |
| Muncy, Max | Freeland, Kyle | 18.0% | Yes ✓ | 67.7% | Yes ✓ | 24.8% | Yes ✓ | 15.0% | No ✗ |
| Muncy, Max | Freeland, Kyle | 18.0% | No ✗ | 67.7% | No ✗ | 24.8% | No ✗ | 15.0% | No ✗ |
| Murakami, Munetaka | Holmes, Clay | 20.9% | No ✗ | 62.0% | No ✗ | 40.0% | No ✗ | 24.3% | No ✗ |
| Myers, Dane | Liberatore, Matthew | 11.1% | No ✗ | 59.3% | Yes ✓ | 45.5% | No ✗ | 31.4% | No ✗ |
| Narváez, Carlos | Warren, Will | 11.4% | No ✗ | 54.1% | No ✗ | 23.9% | No ✗ | 18.2% | No ✗ |
| Naylor, Josh | May, Dustin | 10.2% | No ✗ | 67.3% | Yes ✓ | 39.9% | Yes ✓ | 37.0% | No ✗ |
| Nimmo, Brandon | Cavalli, Cade | 13.2% | No ✗ | 65.5% | No ✗ | 21.4% | No ✗ | 20.2% | No ✗ |
| Nootbaar, Lars | Tolle, Payton | 9.3% | Yes ✓ | 60.6% | Yes ✓ | 26.3% | Yes ✓ | 26.5% | No ✗ |
| Norby, Connor | Sasaki, Roki | 9.4% | No ✗ | 58.4% | Yes ✓ | 38.6% | Yes ✓ | 37.5% | No ✗ |
| Nuñez, Nasim | Rocker, Kumar | 4.4% | No ✗ | 63.2% | No ✗ | 22.8% | No ✗ | 23.6% | No ✗ |
| O'Neill, Tyler | Warren, Will | 18.3% | No ✗ | 61.0% | No ✗ | 31.0% | No ✗ | 24.5% | No ✗ |
| Ohtani, Shohei | Freeland, Kyle | 23.7% | No ✗ | 77.5% | No ✗ | 19.9% | No ✗ | 22.9% | Yes ✓ |
| Okamoto, Kazuma | Rasmussen, Drew | 16.9% | No ✗ | 58.7% | Yes ✓ | 40.3% | No ✗ | 21.2% | Yes ✓ |
| Olson, Matt | Bradley, Taj | 20.0% | No ✗ | 63.6% | Yes ✓ | 38.1% | No ✗ | 17.0% | Yes ✓ |
| Ortiz, Abimelec | Rocker, Kumar | 17.1% | No ✗ | 61.8% | Yes ✓ | 34.8% | Yes ✓ | 18.3% | Yes ✓ |
| Ortiz, Joey | Gilbert, Logan | 8.7% | Yes ✓ | 58.6% | Yes ✓ | 29.7% | Yes ✓ | 31.7% | No ✗ |
| Pages, Andy | Freeland, Kyle | 15.7% | No ✗ | 75.6% | Yes ✓ | 24.4% | No ✗ | 26.2% | No ✗ |
| Palacios, Richie | Scherzer, Max | 7.2% | No ✗ | 56.0% | Yes ✓ | 36.8% | Yes ✓ | 35.4% | No ✗ |
| Paredes, Isaac | Ureña, Walbert | 11.2% | No ✗ | 65.5% | Yes ✓ | 41.5% | No ✗ | 41.3% | Yes ✓ |
| Pederson, Joc | Cavalli, Cade | 17.4% | No ✗ | 56.2% | No ✗ | 20.3% | No ✗ | 29.3% | No ✗ |
| Perdomo, Geraldo | Tolle, Payton | 7.8% | No ✗ | 65.7% | No ✗ | 29.3% | No ✗ | 20.0% | Yes ✓ |
| Peters, Tristan | Holmes, Clay | 7.4% | No ✗ | 56.5% | No ✗ | 42.1% | No ✗ | 29.4% | Yes ✓ |
| Peña, Jeremy | Ureña, Walbert | 11.8% | No ✗ | 64.6% | No ✗ | 20.5% | No ✗ | 41.7% | No ✗ |
| Rafaela, Ceddanne | Pfaadt, Brandon | 9.1% | No ✗ | 68.9% | No ✗ | 18.9% | No ✗ | 25.4% | No ✗ |
| Raleigh, Cal | May, Dustin | 16.2% | No ✗ | 57.4% | No ✗ | 31.6% | No ✗ | 19.8% | Yes ✓ |
| Rengifo, Luis | Stock, Robert | 9.8% | No ✗ | 63.5% | Yes ✓ | 32.0% | No ✗ | 18.2% | No ✗ |
| Reynolds, Bryan | Jobe, Jackson | 12.8% | No ✗ | 65.6% | Yes ✓ | 22.4% | No ✗ | 29.8% | No ✗ |
| Riley, Austin | Bradley, Taj | 10.7% | No ✗ | 56.5% | No ✗ | 47.1% | No ✗ | 42.3% | Yes ✓ |
| Rodden, Brock | May, Dustin | 8.5% | No ✗ | 50.5% | Yes ✓ | 26.3% | Yes ✓ | 32.0% | No ✗ |
| Rodríguez, Julio | May, Dustin | 16.1% | No ✗ | 66.6% | No ✗ | 22.1% | No ✗ | 20.2% | No ✗ |
| Rogers, Jake | Holmes, Clay | 7.5% | No ✗ | 52.0% | Yes ✓ | 27.5% | No ✗ | 22.8% | No ✗ |
| Rojas, Miguel | Freeland, Kyle | 7.4% | No ✗ | 59.5% | No ✗ | 46.2% | No ✗ | 35.0% | No ✗ |
| Rortvedt, Ben | Freeland, Kyle | 4.1% | No ✗ | 56.5% | Yes ✓ | 21.6% | No ✗ | 28.6% | No ✗ |
| Ruiz, Esteury | Nola, Aaron | 4.9% | No ✗ | 51.9% | No ✗ | 38.1% | No ✗ | 17.4% | No ✗ |
| Ruiz, Keibert | Rocker, Kumar | 6.9% | No ✗ | 67.2% | Yes ✓ | 34.7% | Yes ✓ | 29.4% | Yes ✓ |
| Rumfield, TJ | Sasaki, Roki | 10.0% | No ✗ | 68.7% | Yes ✓ | 43.0% | No ✗ | 31.2% | Yes ✓ |
| Rutschman, Adley | Pfaadt, Brandon | 9.1% | No ✗ | 68.7% | No ✗ | 41.6% | No ✗ | 27.5% | No ✗ |
| Sanoja, Javier | Nola, Aaron | 4.5% | Yes ✓ | 62.0% | Yes ✓ | 36.7% | Yes ✓ | 32.1% | No ✗ |
| Schwarber, Kyle | Alcantara, Sandy | 21.2% | No ✗ | 65.9% | No ✗ | 25.6% | No ✗ | 19.6% | No ✗ |
| Seager, Corey | Cavalli, Cade | 16.5% | No ✗ | 64.6% | Yes ✓ | 31.6% | Yes ✓ | 17.8% | No ✗ |
| Semien, Marcus | King, Michael | 9.1% | No ✗ | 55.4% | Yes ✓ | 27.6% | No ✗ | 15.8% | No ✗ |
| Simpson, Chandler | Scherzer, Max | 3.5% | No ✗ | 72.1% | Yes ✓ | 38.9% | No ✗ | 33.5% | No ✗ |
| Smith, Cam | Ureña, Walbert | 14.7% | No ✗ | 58.8% | No ✗ | 23.6% | No ✗ | 35.3% | No ✗ |
| Smith, Dominic | Bradley, Taj | 5.4% | No ✗ | 54.3% | No ✗ | 31.8% | No ✗ | 20.0% | No ✗ |
| Smith, Josh | Rasmussen, Drew | 6.1% | No ✗ | 54.5% | Yes ✓ | 45.7% | No ✗ | 41.1% | Yes ✓ |
| Sogard, Nick | Pfaadt, Brandon | 5.9% | Yes ✓ | 67.6% | Yes ✓ | 33.4% | Yes ✓ | 24.4% | Yes ✓ |
| Song, Sung-Mun | Stock, Robert | 5.5% | No ✗ | 49.0% | No ✗ | 34.7% | No ✗ | 20.4% | No ✗ |
| Springer, George | Rasmussen, Drew | 11.9% | No ✗ | 61.5% | No ✗ | 36.8% | No ✗ | 31.6% | No ✗ |
| Stephenson, Tyler | Liberatore, Matthew | 15.4% | No ✗ | 57.8% | No ✗ | 18.4% | No ✗ | 30.7% | No ✗ |
| Stewart, Sal | Liberatore, Matthew | 16.9% | Yes ✓ | 66.2% | Yes ✓ | 34.6% | Yes ✓ | 25.2% | No ✗ |
| Stott, Bryson | Alcantara, Sandy | 7.9% | No ✗ | 67.6% | No ✗ | 23.1% | No ✗ | 26.9% | No ✗ |
| Straw, Myles | Rasmussen, Drew | 5.2% | No ✗ | 52.3% | No ✗ | 28.5% | No ✗ | 17.4% | Yes ✓ |
| Stubbs, Garrett | Alcantara, Sandy | 4.6% | No ✗ | 52.6% | Yes ✓ | 27.4% | Yes ✓ | 32.1% | No ✗ |
| Sullivan, Brett | Sasaki, Roki | 9.1% | No ✗ | 59.6% | No ✗ | 34.9% | No ✗ | 19.7% | Yes ✓ |
| Suárez, Eugenio | Liberatore, Matthew | 17.5% | No ✗ | 60.1% | No ✗ | 40.2% | No ✗ | 28.8% | Yes ✓ |
| Sánchez, Jesús | Rasmussen, Drew | 12.8% | No ✗ | 53.2% | No ✗ | 44.1% | No ✗ | 25.3% | No ✗ |
| Tatis Jr., Fernando | Stock, Robert | 18.8% | No ✗ | 68.3% | Yes ✓ | 35.8% | Yes ✓ | 46.4% | Yes ✓ |
| Taveras, Leody | Warren, Will | 11.2% | No ✗ | 60.0% | Yes ✓ | 30.5% | Yes ✓ | 25.2% | No ✗ |
| Tawa, Tim | Tolle, Payton | 11.1% | No ✗ | 58.5% | No ✗ | 39.5% | No ✗ | 16.5% | Yes ✓ |
| Tena, José | Rocker, Kumar | 11.7% | Yes ✓ | 51.5% | Yes ✓ | 42.3% | Yes ✓ | 40.5% | Yes ✓ |
| Thomas, Lane | Bradley, Taj | 9.7% | No ✗ | 53.1% | Yes ✓ | 37.9% | No ✗ | 33.0% | No ✗ |
| Toglia, Michael | Liberatore, Matthew | 14.4% | No ✗ | 56.5% | No ✗ | 25.5% | No ✗ | 29.1% | No ✗ |
| Torkelson, Spencer | Skenes, Paul | 11.2% | No ✗ | 54.7% | No ✗ | 29.9% | No ✗ | 18.8% | No ✗ |
| Torrens, Luis | King, Michael | 10.7% | No ✗ | 57.8% | No ✗ | 33.8% | No ✗ | 24.5% | No ✗ |
| Torres, Bryan | Burns, Chase | 5.9% | No ✗ | 51.1% | Yes ✓ | 36.2% | No ✗ | 26.6% | No ✗ |
| Torres, Gleyber | Skenes, Paul | 8.9% | No ✗ | 64.2% | Yes ✓ | 28.1% | No ✗ | 33.0% | Yes ✓ |
| Tovar, Ezequiel | Sasaki, Roki | 10.7% | No ✗ | 55.3% | No ✗ | 30.4% | No ✗ | 21.1% | No ✗ |
| Trammell, Taylor | Ureña, Walbert | 12.2% | No ✗ | 50.9% | No ✗ | 28.4% | No ✗ | 38.4% | No ✗ |
| Trevino, Jose | Liberatore, Matthew | 8.0% | No ✗ | 58.3% | Yes ✓ | 25.5% | No ✗ | 25.3% | No ✗ |
| Triolo, Jared | Jobe, Jackson | 5.6% | No ✗ | 56.1% | No ✗ | 39.6% | No ✗ | 30.5% | No ✗ |
| Tucker, Kyle | Freeland, Kyle | 11.8% | No ✗ | 66.8% | Yes ✓ | 39.3% | Yes ✓ | 22.9% | No ✗ |
| Turang, Brice | Gilbert, Logan | 10.5% | No ✗ | 60.7% | No ✗ | 24.6% | No ✗ | 27.1% | Yes ✓ |
| Turner, Trea | Alcantara, Sandy | 12.9% | No ✗ | 68.6% | Yes ✓ | 33.0% | Yes ✓ | 39.4% | No ✗ |
| Valdez, Esmerlyn | Jobe, Jackson | 20.3% | No ✗ | 59.6% | No ✗ | 38.4% | No ✗ | 41.3% | No ✗ |
| Valenzuela, Brandon | Rasmussen, Drew | 12.1% | No ✗ | 54.1% | Yes ✓ | 40.4% | No ✗ | 19.2% | No ✗ |
| Vargas, Ildemaro | Tolle, Payton | 8.0% | No ✗ | 58.3% | Yes ✓ | 25.1% | No ✗ | 19.5% | No ✗ |
| Vargas, Miguel | Holmes, Clay | 16.9% | No ✗ | 67.0% | Yes ✓ | 25.2% | Yes ✓ | 28.9% | Yes ✓ |
| Vaughn, Andrew | Gilbert, Logan | 8.4% | No ✗ | 55.7% | Yes ✓ | 32.5% | No ✗ | 22.7% | Yes ✓ |
| Veen, Zac | Sasaki, Roki | 11.3% | No ✗ | 56.3% | No ✗ | 30.4% | No ✗ | 20.1% | No ✗ |
| Vilade, Ryan | Scherzer, Max | 15.2% | No ✗ | 60.0% | No ✗ | 37.1% | No ✗ | 33.3% | No ✗ |
| Vivas, Jorbit | Rocker, Kumar | 5.4% | No ✗ | 56.6% | No ✗ | 42.3% | No ✗ | 25.7% | No ✗ |
| Vázquez, Christian | Ureña, Walbert | 5.5% | Yes ✓ | 51.2% | Yes ✓ | 37.6% | Yes ✓ | 22.6% | Yes ✓ |
| Wade Jr., LaMonte | Ureña, Walbert | 6.6% | No ✗ | 51.5% | Yes ✓ | 28.2% | No ✗ | 28.4% | No ✗ |
| Waldschmidt, Ryan | Tolle, Payton | 7.3% | No ✗ | 54.4% | Yes ✓ | 36.7% | Yes ✓ | 25.1% | Yes ✓ |
| Walker, Christian | Ureña, Walbert | 13.8% | No ✗ | 59.4% | No ✗ | nan% | No ✗ | nan% | No ✗ |
| Walker, Jordan | Burns, Chase | 16.0% | Yes ✓ | 64.9% | Yes ✓ | nan% | Yes ✓ | nan% | Yes ✓ |
| Walls, Taylor | Scherzer, Max | 4.4% | No ✗ | 53.7% | Yes ✓ | nan% | No ✗ | nan% | No ✗ |
| Ward, Taylor | May, Dustin | 8.7% | No ✗ | 65.8% | Yes ✓ | nan% | No ✗ | nan% | No ✗ |
| Wetherholt, JJ | Burns, Chase | 13.8% | No ✗ | 64.2% | Yes ✓ | nan% | Yes ✓ | nan% | No ✗ |
| Winn, Masyn | Burns, Chase | 9.9% | No ✗ | 56.8% | No ✗ | nan% | No ✗ | nan% | Yes ✓ |
| Wong, Connor | Pfaadt, Brandon | 8.3% | No ✗ | 57.1% | Yes ✓ | nan% | No ✗ | nan% | No ✗ |
| Yastrzemski, Mike | Bradley, Taj | 7.7% | No ✗ | 53.7% | Yes ✓ | nan% | No ✗ | nan% | No ✗ |
| Yelich, Christian | Gilbert, Logan | 13.6% | No ✗ | 62.6% | Yes ✓ | nan% | No ✗ | nan% | Yes ✓ |
| Young, Cole | May, Dustin | 11.2% | No ✗ | 65.2% | No ✗ | nan% | No ✗ | nan% | Yes ✓ |
| Young, Jacob | Rocker, Kumar | 8.4% | No ✗ | 58.8% | Yes ✓ | nan% | No ✗ | nan% | No ✗ |
| Young, Jared | King, Michael | 14.5% | No ✗ | 59.6% | Yes ✓ | nan% | Yes ✓ | nan% | No ✗ |
The sections above ask whether the order is right. This asks whether the numbers are: when the model says 22%, does it happen 22% of the time?
Each row groups predictions by what the model said. The bar is what happened; the tick is what it predicted.
Grayed rows hold fewer than 30 predictions.
Predicted average minus observed, in percentage points.
Positive means it over-promises — it says things happen more often than they do. Near zero is the target.
How far the percentages sit from what happened. Lower is better.
It means little on its own — just guessing the average every time already scores 0.091. Use skill next to it to see if this beats that.
How much the percentages beat guessing the average every time.
Near zero means they add little, and the model's value is in the order it ranks players rather than the numbers it puts on them. Higher is better.
Predicted average minus observed, in percentage points.
Positive means it over-promises — it says things happen more often than they do. Near zero is the target.
How far the percentages sit from what happened. Lower is better.
It means little on its own — just guessing the average every time already scores 0.245. Use skill next to it to see if this beats that.
How much the percentages beat guessing the average every time.
Near zero means they add little, and the model's value is in the order it ranks players rather than the numbers it puts on them. Higher is better.
Predicted average minus observed, in percentage points.
Positive means it over-promises — it says things happen more often than they do. Near zero is the target.
How far the percentages sit from what happened. Lower is better.
It means little on its own — just guessing the average every time already scores 0.217. Use skill next to it to see if this beats that.
How much the percentages beat guessing the average every time.
Near zero means they add little, and the model's value is in the order it ranks players rather than the numbers it puts on them. Higher is better.
Predicted average minus observed, in percentage points.
Positive means it over-promises — it says things happen more often than they do. Near zero is the target.
How far the percentages sit from what happened. Lower is better.
It means little on its own — just guessing the average every time already scores 0.196. Use skill next to it to see if this beats that.
How much the percentages beat guessing the average every time.
Near zero means they add little, and the model's value is in the order it ranks players rather than the numbers it puts on them. Higher is better.