Pitch Mix Analysis
A batter's own numbers by pitch type and location — add a pitcher to see their actual arsenal overlaid on top, and how this batter has done against pitches shaped like it.
Batter: Rogers, Jake
Long and lofted (2)
Pitcher: Holmes, Grant (RHP)
filtered for today’s matchup
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828 pitches seen
·
0.308 xwOBA against shapes like this arsenal,
vs 0.300 against everything
(+0.008)
·
last 30 games: 0.420
+0.112
on 274 pitches, covering 22% of the arsenal
Pitch familiarity
Pitchers' arsenals are grouped by pitch shape — velocity, break and spin — and weighted by how often this pitcher throws each, so the number describes the arsenal he will face tonight.
Compared against this batter's own mark across every shape he has faced, so “done well” means well for him.
Descriptive — the model does not read it.
Hot Zones
by location · xwOBA on contact (excludes Ks/BBs, so runs higher than a full-PA xwOBA), dimmed cells are too few balls in play to trust
Overall vs RHP
29p
48p
40p
0.245
41p
0.346
69p
0.301
64p
32p
0.408
54p
0.290
58p
How Rogers, Jake handles each pitch
Reading these bars
One row per pitch this pitcher throws, ordered by usage. The bar is how this batter has performed against it; the dotted line is his own average from that hand.
Deeper red is better than his usual, deeper blue worse.
Faded rows have too little contact to trust — the count on the right is the sample behind the number.
vs RHP · ordered by usageNo tracked contact against this pitcher's pitches for this batter yet
Holmes, Grant's Arsenal, by Pitch Type
ordered by usage vs. a RHH batter
Matched by pitch name
Left: what the pitcher throws. Right: how this batter has done against that same pitch.
The right-hand columns count only pitches carrying the same label — a slider against a slider — thrown by pitchers with the same handedness.
That is precise but can leave a small sample. The table below groups by how a pitch actually moves instead.
| Pitch | Usage% | Velo | Vert Brk | Horz Brk | Spin | Allowed HR% | Allowed Hard-Hit% | Allowed xwOBA/con | Rogers, Jake: BA | Rogers, Jake: HR% | Rogers, Jake: Hard-Hit% | Rogers, Jake: Exit Velo | Rogers, Jake: xwOBA/con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 43% | 85.5 | -3.2" | 2.5" | 2800 | 3.5% | 36% | 0.382 | 0.172 | 3.4% | 14% | 84.1 | 0.195 |
| FF | 32% | 94.5 | 15.4" | -5.7" | 2323 | 7.3% | 44% | 0.398 | 0.216 | 3.9% | 61% | 90.1 | 0.327 |
| SI | 10% | 93.0 | 8.3" | -13.6" | 2249 | 0.0% | 47% | 0.329 | 0.250 | 2.1% | 44% | 88.6 | 0.403 |
| FC | 9% | 92.4 | 11.1" | 0.0" | 2519 | 3.4% | 46% | 0.414 | 0.077 | 0.0% | 11% | 83.7 | 0.170 |
| CU | 5% | 83.8 | -8.9" | 3.3" | 2876 | 0.0% | 36% | 0.501 | 0.125 | 0.0% | |||
| CH | 1% | 89.8 | 3.9" | -13.4" | 1674 | 0.000 | 0.0% |
Holmes, Grant's Arsenal, by Pitch Shape
grouped by velo/break/spin, not label
Why shape beats the label
The table above, grouped by how the pitch moves rather than what it is called.
Two pitchers can both say “slider” and throw very different pitches. Grouping by speed, break and spin pools everyone throwing something physically similar, so the sample is bigger and steadier.
| Shape (mostly) | Usage% | Velo | Vert Brk | Horz Brk | Allowed xwOBA/con | Rogers, Jake: BA | Rogers, Jake: HR% | Rogers, Jake: Hard-Hit% | Rogers, Jake: xwOBA/con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST/SL/CU | 37% | 85.5 | -3.3" | 2.7" | 0.372 | 0.190 | 0.0% | 25% | 0.325 |
| EP/FA/SL | 19% | 94.7 | 15.7" | -5.5" | 0.410 | ||||
| FF/SI/FC | 19% | 94.7 | 15.7" | -5.5" | 0.410 | 0.087 | 0.0% | 60% | 0.219 |
| FF/SI/FC | 17% | 93.9 | 14.7" | -5.4" | 0.359 | 0.333 | 3.0% | 58% | 0.405 |
| SI/FF/CH | 9% | 93.0 | 8.1" | -13.8" | 0.340 | 0.214 | 2.4% | 45% | 0.373 |
| FC/SL/FF | 8% | 90.6 | 7.5" | 0.7" | 0.468 | 0.200 | 5.0% | 7% | 0.197 |
| CU/KC/ST | 6% | 83.9 | -8.9" | 2.9" | 0.390 | 0.091 | 0.0% | ||
| SL/ST/CU | 2% | 84.8 | -2.9" | 1.4" | 0.524 | 0.100 | 5.0% | 20% | 0.183 |
| CH/FS/FO | 1% | 89.5 | 2.9" | -13.5" | |||||
| CH/SI/FS | 0% | 88.8 | 3.2" | -14.3" | 0.000 | 0.0% |
At-Bat Log
Every plate appearance
One row per plate appearance, newest first. Strikeouts and walks included.
Expected stats say what a batted ball was worth given how hard and at what angle it was hit, whether or not it found a glove.
xBA is blank on strikeouts and walks — there is no batted ball to judge. xwOBA counts them.
84 PA · 30 games · 2026-05-16 to 2026-08-19
13 hits
14 walks
24 strikeouts
33 outs in play
avg exit velo 86.4 mph over 45 tracked
xwOBA 0.296
| Date | Result | Count | Pitch | Velo | Exit Velo | Angle | Dist | Location | xBA | xSLG | xwOBA | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Strikeout looking | 2-2 | CU | 79.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Civale, Aaron |
| 2026-08-19 | Out fly ball | 0-1 | FF | 96.7 | 98.6 | 31° | 359 | LF gap | 0.371 | 1.364 | 0.717 | Thornton, Trent |
| 2026-08-19 | Single line drive | 1-1 | SI | 91.8 | 99.9 | 10° | 165 | LF | 0.800 | 0.917 | 0.754 | Holmes, Clay |
| 2026-08-19 | Out ground ball | 2-2 | FC | 84.5 | 88.3 | 3° | 60 | Infield | 0.374 | 0.420 | 0.343 | Holmes, Clay |
| 2026-08-17 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 0-2 | CH | 88.4 | 88.6 | 7° | 106 | Infield | 0.537 | 0.627 | 0.519 | Peterson, David |
| 2026-08-17 | Walk | 3-2 | FF | 93.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Rolison, Ryan |
| 2026-08-17 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 91.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Imanaga, Shota |
| 2026-08-15 | Out ground ball | 1-0 | FF | 96.1 | 69.1 | -1° | 27 | Infield | 0.086 | 0.102 | 0.082 | Finnegan, Kyle |
| 2026-08-15 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FF | 95.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Sommers, Drew |
| 2026-08-15 | Strikeout looking | 1-2 | SL | 87.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Melton, Troy |
| 2026-08-15 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 1-1 | FF | 96.4 | 34.4 | -56° | 2 | Infield | 0.257 | 0.257 | 0.231 | Melton, Troy |
| 2026-08-09 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | SI | 92.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Ginn, J.T. |
| 2026-08-09 | Single ground ball | 0-0 | SI | 92.5 | 89.9 | -11° | 10 | LF gap | 0.139 | 0.168 | 0.131 | Ginn, J.T. |
| 2026-08-09 | Out line drive | 3-2 | SI | 93.4 | 84.8 | 21° | 272 | CF | 0.551 | 0.687 | 0.518 | Ginn, J.T. |
| 2026-08-07 | Walk | 3-2 | FC | 89.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Blewett, Scott |
| 2026-08-07 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | SL | 85.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Medina, Luis |
| 2026-08-07 | Double line drive | 1-2 | SL | 86.5 | 94.4 | 20° | 334 | LF gap | 0.303 | 0.516 | 0.342 | Juenger, Hayden |
| 2026-08-07 | Double line drive | 3-1 | FF | 95.2 | 106.6 | 17° | 341 | LF gap | 0.551 | 1.075 | 0.684 | Perkins, Jack |
| 2026-08-06 | Sac Fly fly ball | 3-1 | FF | 94.4 | 93.2 | 36° | 349 | CF | — | — | 0.073 | Murphy, Chris |
| 2026-08-06 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 90.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Richards, Trevor |
| 2026-08-02 | Single ground ball | 1-0 | SI | 93.5 | 96.5 | 8° | 120 | LF gap | 0.660 | 0.751 | 0.627 | Mayza, Tim |
| 2026-08-02 | Walk | 3-2 | SI | 90.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Backhus, Kyle |
| 2026-08-01 | Strikeout looking | 3-2 | FF | 97.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Bowlan, Jonathan |
| 2026-08-01 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | SI | 95.2 | 95.6 | 9° | 127 | LF gap | 0.629 | 0.701 | 0.584 | Sánchez, Cristopher |
| 2026-08-01 | Strikeout swinging | 3-2 | SL | 88.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Sánchez, Cristopher |
| 2026-07-31 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 0-0 | FC | 90.2 | 69.8 | 2° | 40 | Infield | 0.139 | 0.158 | 0.125 | Shugart, Chase |
| 2026-07-25 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | FC | 90.0 | 96.8 | 3° | 67 | Infield | 0.523 | 0.584 | 0.489 | Wacha, Michael |
| 2026-07-25 | Out ground ball | 2-1 | SI | 92.4 | 73.1 | -3° | 24 | Infield | 0.064 | 0.072 | 0.058 | Wacha, Michael |
| 2026-07-25 | Out ground ball | 0-1 | CH | 78.4 | 97.9 | 1° | 55 | Infield | 0.423 | 0.474 | 0.396 | Wacha, Michael |
| 2026-07-21 | Walk | 3-2 | CU | 77.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Civale, Aaron |
| 2026-07-21 | Strikeout looking | 1-2 | CU | 76.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Civale, Aaron |
| 2026-07-21 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | SI | 88.7 | 59.3 | -55° | 2 | Infield | 0.238 | 0.240 | 0.214 | Peterson, David |
| 2026-07-21 | Out ground ball | 1-0 | SI | 92.3 | 74.9 | -44° | 2 | Infield | 0.179 | 0.181 | 0.175 | Peterson, David |
| 2026-07-19 | Walk | 3-2 | FC | 90.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Johnson, Ryan |
| 2026-07-17 | Out fly ball | 2-0 | FF | 94.5 | 96.2 | 33° | 351 | CF | 0.154 | 0.535 | 0.285 | Natera Jr., Samy |
| 2026-07-10 | Out fly ball | 3-1 | SI | 92.9 | 101.0 | 34° | 375 | RF gap | 0.411 | 1.605 | 0.836 | Mayza, Tim |
| 2026-07-10 | Single line drive | 0-0 | FF | 90.3 | 101.9 | 17° | 291 | CF | 0.403 | 0.696 | 0.459 | Nola, Aaron |
| 2026-07-10 | Walk | 3-2 | FF | 94.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Nola, Aaron |
| 2026-07-09 | Walk | 3-0 | FF | 93.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Harris, Hogan |
| 2026-07-09 | Home Run fly ball | 2-2 | FF | 95.6 | 96.6 | 27° | 363 | LF | 0.323 | 0.871 | 0.494 | Perkins, Jack |
| 2026-07-08 | Walk | 3-2 | SL | 86.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Barnett, Mason |
| 2026-07-08 | Single line drive | 1-1 | CH | 78.7 | 92.8 | 20° | 291 | LF gap | 0.291 | 0.428 | 0.287 | Springs, Jeffrey |
| 2026-07-08 | Home Run fly ball | 2-2 | FF | 90.9 | 98.2 | 32° | 376 | LF gap | 0.286 | 1.004 | 0.529 | Springs, Jeffrey |
| 2026-07-05 | Strikeout looking | 3-2 | FF | 95.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Winn, Cole |
| 2026-07-05 | Strikeout swinging | 0-2 | SL | 82.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Rocker, Kumar |
| 2026-07-05 | Out fly ball | 1-0 | FC | 88.6 | 87.3 | 48° | 262 | RF | 0.011 | 0.026 | 0.019 | Rocker, Kumar |
| 2026-07-01 | Out fly ball | 1-0 | SI | 94.1 | 91.9 | 54° | 251 | LF | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | Blackburn, Paul |
| 2026-07-01 | Out ground ball | 0-2 | SI | 94.4 | 109.3 | -19° | 5 | Infield | 0.121 | 0.134 | 0.109 | Warren, Will |
| 2026-07-01 | Strikeout swinging | 0-2 | FF | 94.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Warren, Will |
| 2026-06-27 | Out fly ball | 0-2 | FF | 92.4 | 98.2 | 41° | 357 | LF gap | 0.089 | 0.319 | 0.166 | Okert, Steven |
| 2026-06-27 | Single ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 90.3 | 86.2 | 9° | 124 | LF gap | 0.426 | 0.467 | 0.383 | Teng, Kai-Wei |
| 2026-06-24 | Walk | 3-2 | FC | 98.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Doval, Camilo |
| 2026-06-24 | Out fly ball | 1-0 | FF | 97.1 | 91.2 | 39° | 323 | RF corner | 0.023 | 0.045 | 0.028 | Weathers, Ryan |
| 2026-06-24 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | CH | 86.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Weathers, Ryan |
| 2026-06-20 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | CU | 77.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Murphy, Chris |
| 2026-06-20 | Single line drive | 0-1 | FF | 92.0 | 102.5 | 15° | 265 | LF gap | 0.637 | 0.953 | 0.675 | Rock, Joe |
| 2026-06-20 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 93.2 | 90.9 | -19° | 9 | Infield | 0.101 | 0.112 | 0.097 | Rock, Joe |
| 2026-06-20 | Strikeout looking | 0-2 | FF | 95.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Newcomb, Sean |
| 2026-06-17 | Out ground ball | 3-2 | FF | 96.0 | 96.3 | -10° | 15 | Infield | 0.249 | 0.282 | 0.237 | De Los Santos, Enyel |
| 2026-06-17 | Strikeout looking | 3-2 | FF | 94.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Lambert, Peter |
| 2026-06-17 | Out fly ball | 1-1 | CH | 84.1 | 77.8 | 44° | 244 | RF gap | 0.063 | 0.074 | 0.057 | Lambert, Peter |
| 2026-06-16 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | SL | 84.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Hader, Josh |
| 2026-06-11 | Out fly ball | 1-0 | SL | 85.7 | 97.1 | 42° | 344 | LF gap | 0.034 | 0.107 | 0.056 | Matthews, Zebby |
| 2026-06-11 | Out ground ball | 2-2 | SL | 86.9 | 64.6 | 5° | 56 | RF corner | 0.187 | 0.218 | 0.181 | Matthews, Zebby |
| 2026-06-11 | Out ground ball | 2-1 | SL | 85.1 | 70.7 | -13° | 10 | Infield | 0.041 | 0.046 | 0.037 | Matthews, Zebby |
| 2026-06-03 | Strikeout looking | 3-2 | FF | 90.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Englert, Mason |
| 2026-06-03 | Single ground ball | 0-1 | FC | 87.7 | 70.7 | -55° | 1 | Infield | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.274 | Englert, Mason |
| 2026-06-03 | Sac Bunt ground ball | 1-0 | SI | 90.7 | 28.7 | -28° | 4 | Infield | — | — | — | Martinez, Nick |
| 2026-06-03 | Home Run fly ball | 0-0 | SI | 91.9 | 105.4 | 25° | 389 | LF | 0.894 | 3.335 | 1.739 | Martinez, Nick |
| 2026-05-31 | Strikeout swinging | 3-2 | CH | 84.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Eisert, Brandon |
| 2026-05-31 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FF | 96.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Burke, Sean |
| 2026-05-28 | Walk | 3-2 | FF | 97.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Rodriguez, Grayson |
| 2026-05-28 | Strikeout swinging | 0-2 | FF | 97.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Rodriguez, Grayson |
| 2026-05-24 | Walk | 3-2 | CH | 85.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Akin, Keegan |
| 2026-05-24 | Strikeout swinging | 3-2 | FF | 94.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Young, Brandon |
| 2026-05-24 | Out popup | 3-1 | SI | 93.0 | 60.6 | 52° | 155 | Infield | 0.034 | 0.036 | 0.031 | Young, Brandon |
| 2026-05-24 | Out fly ball | 0-0 | FF | 92.8 | 96.9 | 55° | 237 | RF gap | 0.011 | 0.023 | 0.015 | Young, Brandon |
| 2026-05-20 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | FC | 88.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Bibee, Tanner |
| 2026-05-20 | Out line drive | 1-0 | FF | 93.1 | 96.9 | 20° | 299 | RF | 0.286 | 0.543 | 0.340 | Bibee, Tanner |
| 2026-05-16 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 97.9 | 67.0 | -10° | 11 | Infield | 0.069 | 0.069 | 0.066 | Varland, Louis |
| 2026-05-16 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | SI | 83.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Rogers, Tyler |
| 2026-05-16 | Incomplete PA | 0-1 | SL | 88.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Nance, Tommy |
| 2026-05-16 | Walk | 3-2 | SI | 95.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Miles, Spencer |
| 2026-05-16 | Strikeout looking | 1-2 | CU | 81.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Miles, Spencer |