Pitch Mix Analysis
A batter's own numbers by pitch type and location — add a pitcher to see their actual arsenal overlaid on top, and how this batter has done against pitches shaped like it.
Batter: Pauley, Graham
Fast and flat
Pitcher: Nola, Aaron (RHP)
filtered for today’s matchup
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1,009 pitches seen
·
0.304 xwOBA against shapes like this arsenal,
vs 0.301 against everything
(+0.003)
·
last 30 games: 0.304
+0.000
on 383 pitches, covering 38% of the arsenal
Pitch familiarity
Pitchers' arsenals are grouped by pitch shape — velocity, break and spin — and weighted by how often this pitcher throws each, so the number describes the arsenal he will face tonight.
Compared against this batter's own mark across every shape he has faced, so “done well” means well for him.
Descriptive — the model does not read it.
Hot Zones
by location · xwOBA on contact (excludes Ks/BBs, so runs higher than a full-PA xwOBA), dimmed cells are too few balls in play to trust
Overall vs RHP
0.311
62p
0.402
47p
0.187
34p
0.292
66p
0.200
74p
0.362
45p
0.269
67p
0.344
57p
0.533
45p
How Pauley, Graham handles each pitch
Reading these bars
One row per pitch this pitcher throws, ordered by usage. The bar is how this batter has performed against it; the dotted line is his own average from that hand.
Deeper red is better than his usual, deeper blue worse.
Faded rows have too little contact to trust — the count on the right is the sample behind the number.
vs RHP · ordered by usageNo tracked contact against this pitcher's pitches for this batter yet
Nola, Aaron's Arsenal, by Pitch Type
ordered by usage vs. a LHH batter
Matched by pitch name
Left: what the pitcher throws. Right: how this batter has done against that same pitch.
The right-hand columns count only pitches carrying the same label — a slider against a slider — thrown by pitchers with the same handedness.
That is precise but can leave a small sample. The table below groups by how a pitch actually moves instead.
| Pitch | Usage% | Velo | Vert Brk | Horz Brk | Spin | Allowed HR% | Allowed Hard-Hit% | Allowed xwOBA/con | Pauley, Graham: BA | Pauley, Graham: HR% | Pauley, Graham: Hard-Hit% | Pauley, Graham: Exit Velo | Pauley, Graham: xwOBA/con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 31% | 78.2 | -10.3" | 14.8" | 2619 | 5.0% | 42% | 0.425 | |||||
| FF | 30% | 92.2 | 14.7" | -12.9" | 2337 | 9.9% | 50% | 0.428 | 0.230 | 1.1% | 33% | 86.4 | 0.328 |
| CH | 20% | 85.4 | 3.0" | -14.8" | 1573 | 2.6% | 42% | 0.325 | 0.171 | 0.0% | 13% | 83.6 | 0.296 |
| SI | 12% | 91.5 | 8.6" | -17.4" | 2254 | 5.1% | 54% | 0.407 | 0.167 | 4.2% | 29% | 87.5 | 0.255 |
| FC | 6% | 86.3 | 8.0" | -0.0" | 2285 | 6.1% | 58% | 0.495 | 0.269 | 3.8% | 29% | 76.0 | 0.244 |
| SL | 0% | 84.0 | 1.8" | 0.7" | 2309 | 0.227 | 0.0% | 29% | 86.3 | 0.292 |
Nola, Aaron's Arsenal, by Pitch Shape
grouped by velo/break/spin, not label
Why shape beats the label
The table above, grouped by how the pitch moves rather than what it is called.
Two pitchers can both say “slider” and throw very different pitches. Grouping by speed, break and spin pools everyone throwing something physically similar, so the sample is bigger and steadier.
| Shape (mostly) | Usage% | Velo | Vert Brk | Horz Brk | Allowed xwOBA/con | Pauley, Graham: BA | Pauley, Graham: HR% | Pauley, Graham: Hard-Hit% | Pauley, Graham: xwOBA/con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CU/KC/ST | 30% | 78.2 | -10.4" | 14.8" | 0.425 | 0.217 | 8.7% | 40% | 0.367 |
| FF/SI/FC | 21% | 91.9 | 14.9" | -12.5" | 0.442 | 0.188 | 0.0% | 32% | 0.296 |
| SI/FF/CH | 15% | 91.8 | 9.4" | -16.9" | 0.396 | 0.217 | 4.3% | 26% | 0.238 |
| CH/FS/FO | 14% | 85.2 | 2.5" | -14.4" | 0.304 | 0.105 | 0.0% | 27% | 0.242 |
| CH/SI/FS | 7% | 86.0 | 4.3" | -15.8" | 0.386 | 0.200 | 0.0% | 15% | 0.288 |
| EP/FA/SL | 6% | 93.2 | 15.5" | -13.1" | 0.401 | ||||
| FF/SI/FC | 6% | 93.2 | 15.5" | -13.1" | 0.404 | 0.244 | 2.4% | 35% | 0.327 |
| FC/SL/FF | 6% | 86.4 | 8.1" | -0.1" | 0.495 | 0.303 | 3.0% | 30% | 0.313 |
| SL/ST/CU | 0% | 83.7 | 4.5" | 1.4" | 0.154 | 0.0% | 33% | 0.283 | |
| ST/SL/CU | 0% | 78.8 | -3.8" | 16.4" | 0.143 | 0.0% | 25% | 0.367 |
At-Bat Log
Every plate appearance
One row per plate appearance, newest first. Strikeouts and walks included.
Expected stats say what a batted ball was worth given how hard and at what angle it was hit, whether or not it found a glove.
xBA is blank on strikeouts and walks — there is no batted ball to judge. xwOBA counts them.
67 PA · 30 games · 2026-04-13 to 2026-08-16
13 hits
3 walks
12 strikeouts
39 outs in play
avg exit velo 84.7 mph over 52 tracked
xwOBA 0.263
| Date | Result | Count | Pitch | Velo | Exit Velo | Angle | Dist | Location | xBA | xSLG | xwOBA | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Reached On Error ground ball | 0-0 | CH | 83.6 | 79.6 | 0° | 38 | RF corner | 0.190 | 0.221 | 0.177 | Marinaccio, Ron |
| 2026-08-15 | Double line drive | 0-0 | FF | 93.8 | 106.2 | 22° | 341 | RF | 0.843 | 2.609 | 1.415 | Marinaccio, Ron |
| 2026-08-15 | Sac Fly fly ball | 0-1 | FC | 90.6 | 88.2 | 34° | 308 | LF gap | — | — | 0.030 | Antone, Tejay |
| 2026-08-15 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | SL | 83.0 | 72.9 | 5° | 56 | Infield | 0.210 | 0.237 | 0.202 | Singer, Brady |
| 2026-08-15 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | SI | 92.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Singer, Brady |
| 2026-08-15 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 1-0 | SI | 90.4 | 99.4 | 3° | 81 | RF corner | 0.471 | 0.533 | 0.442 | Singer, Brady |
| 2026-08-14 | Single ground ball | 0-1 | FF | 98.2 | 80.4 | 9° | 117 | RF | 0.369 | 0.423 | 0.356 | Burns, Chase |
| 2026-08-14 | Out fly ball | 3-2 | FF | 98.3 | 90.8 | 44° | 296 | LF gap | 0.009 | 0.013 | 0.008 | Burns, Chase |
| 2026-07-30 | Out ground ball | 1-2 | SI | 94.7 | 76.0 | -26° | 6 | Infield | 0.034 | 0.034 | 0.031 | McLean, Nolan |
| 2026-07-30 | Single ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 97.1 | 59.7 | 6° | 61 | LF corner | 0.133 | 0.156 | 0.120 | McLean, Nolan |
| 2026-07-28 | Strikeout looking | 1-2 | FF | 92.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Nola, Aaron |
| 2026-07-28 | Double Play line drive | 3-2 | FF | 93.9 | 99.7 | 9° | 154 | Infield | 0.714 | 0.822 | 0.676 | Nola, Aaron |
| 2026-07-26 | Out ground ball | 2-1 | FC | 90.9 | 93.0 | -19° | 8 | RF corner | 0.142 | 0.161 | 0.133 | Buehler, Walker |
| 2026-07-26 | Single line drive | 1-1 | KC | 80.2 | 73.8 | 15° | 141 | RF | 0.574 | 0.603 | 0.517 | Buehler, Walker |
| 2026-07-20 | Out fly ball | 2-2 | CH | 84.9 | 90.2 | 41° | 308 | LF gap | 0.009 | 0.025 | 0.014 | Blanco, Ronel |
| 2026-06-28 | Out popup | 2-2 | CH | 89.2 | 64.6 | 32° | 201 | CF | 0.871 | 0.913 | 0.784 | Leahy, Kyle |
| 2026-06-26 | Out fly ball | 2-1 | CH | 84.7 | 100.0 | 26° | 362 | RF | 0.506 | 1.535 | 0.840 | Rajcic, Max |
| 2026-06-26 | Double ground ball | 0-2 | FF | 97.2 | 95.6 | 4° | 79 | RF corner | 0.534 | 0.618 | 0.511 | Soriano, George |
| 2026-06-26 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | CH | 87.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | McGreevy, Michael |
| 2026-06-26 | Out fly ball | 0-2 | FF | 92.1 | 95.9 | 28° | 380 | RF gap | 0.257 | 0.821 | 0.447 | McGreevy, Michael |
| 2026-05-27 | Out line drive | 1-1 | SL | 74.8 | 90.6 | 22° | 319 | LF gap | 0.180 | 0.282 | 0.185 | Rogers, Tyler |
| 2026-05-27 | Out popup | 2-2 | FF | 95.0 | 69.2 | 72° | 82 | Infield | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | Gausman, Kevin |
| 2026-05-27 | Out ground ball | 1-2 | FF | 94.2 | 96.3 | -1° | 45 | Infield | 0.365 | 0.392 | 0.334 | Gausman, Kevin |
| 2026-05-26 | Out popup | 3-1 | FF | 95.0 | 71.2 | 90° | 46 | RF corner | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | Andrews, Tanner |
| 2026-05-24 | Strikeout looking | 2-2 | FF | 95.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Weaver, Luke |
| 2026-05-24 | Out fly ball | 1-1 | SI | 95.9 | 82.2 | 28° | 308 | RF gap | 0.094 | 0.118 | 0.085 | Brazobán, Huascar |
| 2026-05-23 | Out fly ball | 0-1 | CH | 86.0 | 76.5 | 36° | 265 | RF gap | 0.083 | 0.107 | 0.075 | Peralta, Freddy |
| 2026-05-23 | Single line drive | 0-0 | FF | 93.3 | 96.6 | 16° | 275 | CF | 0.666 | 0.924 | 0.679 | Peralta, Freddy |
| 2026-05-23 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | CH | 88.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Peralta, Freddy |
| 2026-05-05 | Out fly ball | 2-2 | SL | 88.9 | 76.4 | 37° | 249 | RF | 0.091 | 0.105 | 0.082 | Kittredge, Andrew |
| 2026-05-05 | Out line drive | 0-0 | FF | 97.3 | 82.0 | 13° | 149 | Infield | 0.649 | 0.754 | 0.622 | Nunez, Anthony |
| 2026-05-04 | Out ground ball | 1-1 | CH | 84.5 | 70.6 | -8° | 17 | Infield | 0.064 | 0.069 | 0.058 | Nola, Aaron |
| 2026-05-04 | Out fly ball | 3-2 | KC | 79.3 | 87.1 | 28° | 329 | RF gap | 0.060 | 0.110 | 0.066 | Nola, Aaron |
| 2026-05-02 | Out line drive | 2-1 | FF | 97.0 | 84.0 | 20° | 262 | RF | 0.749 | 0.859 | 0.700 | Painter, Andrew |
| 2026-05-02 | Out popup | 0-1 | FF | 97.5 | 57.4 | 80° | 39 | LF corner | 0.006 | 0.006 | 0.005 | Painter, Andrew |
| 2026-04-29 | Out fly ball | 0-0 | FF | 96.9 | 93.0 | 35° | 326 | LF gap | 0.057 | 0.162 | 0.092 | Klein, Will |
| 2026-04-29 | Out popup | 2-0 | FF | 97.3 | 53.2 | 48° | 140 | LF corner | 0.031 | 0.031 | 0.028 | Klein, Will |
| 2026-04-29 | Walk | 3-2 | SI | 96.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Glasnow, Tyler |
| 2026-04-28 | Out popup | 3-2 | FF | 93.0 | 84.6 | 76° | 48 | RF corner | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.003 | Dreyer, Jack |
| 2026-04-28 | Strikeout looking | 2-2 | FF | 98.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | Out fly ball | 3-1 | FF | 95.4 | 101.6 | 65° | 160 | RF corner | 0.011 | 0.014 | 0.010 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | Strikeout looking | 3-2 | SI | 91.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Roupp, Landen |
| 2026-04-26 | Out ground ball | 2-2 | CH | 86.8 | 93.0 | -6° | 13 | Infield | 0.184 | 0.211 | 0.169 | Roupp, Landen |
| 2026-04-24 | Walk | 3-0 | SI | 92.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Brubaker, JT |
| 2026-04-24 | Strikeout swinging | 0-2 | FF | 94.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Brubaker, JT |
| 2026-04-24 | Single line drive | 2-0 | SI | 93.9 | 103.3 | 10° | 201 | RF | 0.849 | 1.018 | 0.812 | Houser, Adrian |
| 2026-04-24 | Single line drive | 0-2 | CH | 86.9 | 79.9 | 15° | 209 | CF | 0.863 | 0.962 | 0.816 | Houser, Adrian |
| 2026-04-22 | Fielder's Choice ground ball | 3-1 | FF | 93.6 | 81.4 | -14° | 9 | RF corner | 0.077 | 0.082 | 0.072 | Fernandez, Ryan |
| 2026-04-22 | Single fly ball | 3-1 | FF | 94.3 | 71.3 | 34° | 239 | LF gap | 0.649 | 0.727 | 0.608 | Graceffo, Gordon |
| 2026-04-21 | Single line drive | 1-2 | SI | 95.5 | 88.7 | 7° | 144 | LF | 0.537 | 0.627 | 0.519 | May, Dustin |
| 2026-04-21 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FC | 94.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | May, Dustin |
| 2026-04-20 | Out line drive | 3-2 | SI | 95.9 | 102.7 | 23° | 378 | CF | 0.720 | 2.102 | 1.171 | Svanson, Matt |
| 2026-04-20 | Out ground ball | 2-2 | FF | 91.2 | 94.2 | -17° | 8 | RF corner | 0.162 | 0.185 | 0.146 | McGreevy, Michael |
| 2026-04-20 | Out fly ball | 2-2 | FF | 93.4 | 87.2 | 46° | 270 | LF | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.003 | McGreevy, Michael |
| 2026-04-19 | Walk | 3-2 | FF | 101.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Misiorowski, Jacob |
| 2026-04-19 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FF | 100.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Misiorowski, Jacob |
| 2026-04-15 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 1-1 | CH | 89.9 | 94.2 | -7° | 15 | Infield | 0.227 | 0.254 | 0.210 | Suarez, Robert |
| 2026-04-15 | Double line drive | 2-2 | SL | 84.3 | 100.9 | 21° | 370 | RF gap | 0.380 | 0.801 | 0.492 | Elder, Bryce |
| 2026-04-15 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 93.7 | 86.0 | -19° | 7 | Infield | 0.061 | 0.074 | 0.055 | Elder, Bryce |
| 2026-04-14 | Out fly ball | 1-0 | CH | 88.8 | 91.6 | 56° | 222 | CF | 0.011 | 0.020 | 0.012 | Iglesias, Raisel |
| 2026-04-14 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 2-2 | SL | 85.4 | 65.8 | 4° | 48 | Infield | 0.170 | 0.193 | 0.159 | Kinley, Tyler |
| 2026-04-14 | Double fly ball | 3-0 | FF | 92.8 | 92.5 | 28° | 337 | RF | 0.126 | 0.289 | 0.170 | López, Reynaldo |
| 2026-04-13 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 3-2 | CH | 84.3 | 67.8 | 5° | 62 | Infield | 0.201 | 0.230 | 0.192 | Suarez, José |
| 2026-04-13 | Strikeout looking | 3-2 | SL | 87.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Muñoz, Rolddy |
| 2026-04-13 | Strikeout looking | 2-2 | FF | 96.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Muñoz, Rolddy |
| 2026-04-13 | Single ground ball | 3-1 | SI | 90.0 | 92.2 | -16° | 7 | CF | 0.176 | 0.189 | 0.158 | Bummer, Aaron |
| 2026-04-13 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 95.0 | 72.9 | -17° | 10 | Infield | 0.049 | 0.054 | 0.044 | Holmes, Grant |