Pitch Mix Analysis
A batter's own numbers by pitch type and location — add a pitcher to see their actual arsenal overlaid on top, and how this batter has done against pitches shaped like it.
662 pitches seen
·
0.379 xwOBA against shapes like this arsenal,
vs 0.391 against everything
(-0.012)
·
last 30 games: 0.458
+0.079
on 385 pitches, covering 65% of the arsenal
Pitch familiarity
Pitchers' arsenals are grouped by pitch shape — velocity, break and spin — and weighted by how often this pitcher throws each, so the number describes the arsenal he will face tonight.
Compared against this batter's own mark across every shape he has faced, so “done well” means well for him.
Descriptive — the model does not read it.
Hot Zones
by location · xwOBA on contact (excludes Ks/BBs, so runs higher than a full-PA xwOBA), dimmed cells are too few balls in play to trust
Overall vs RHP
40p
0.207
35p
25p
0.117
31p
0.647
31p
0.135
21p
0.259
38p
0.456
47p
0.249
28p
How Mesa Jr., Victor handles each pitch
Reading these bars
One row per pitch this pitcher throws, ordered by usage. The bar is how this batter has performed against it; the dotted line is his own average from that hand.
Deeper red is better than his usual, deeper blue worse.
Faded rows have too little contact to trust — the count on the right is the sample behind the number.
vs RHP · ordered by usageNo tracked contact against this pitcher's pitches for this batter yet
Scherzer, Max's Arsenal, by Pitch Type
ordered by usage vs. a LHH batter
Matched by pitch name
Left: what the pitcher throws. Right: how this batter has done against that same pitch.
The right-hand columns count only pitches carrying the same label — a slider against a slider — thrown by pitchers with the same handedness.
That is precise but can leave a small sample. The table below groups by how a pitch actually moves instead.
| Pitch | Usage% | Velo | Vert Brk | Horz Brk | Spin | Allowed HR% | Allowed Hard-Hit% | Allowed xwOBA/con | Mesa Jr., Victor: BA | Mesa Jr., Victor: HR% | Mesa Jr., Victor: Hard-Hit% | Mesa Jr., Victor: Exit Velo | Mesa Jr., Victor: xwOBA/con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FF | 48% | 93.4 | 16.4" | -8.8" | 2368 | 7.4% | 35% | 0.412 | 0.115 | 5.8% | 38% | 86.4 | 0.291 |
| CH | 19% | 84.5 | 4.5" | -14.4" | 1362 | 1.8% | 36% | 0.286 | 0.412 | 5.9% | 71% | 96.2 | 0.624 |
| CU | 15% | 76.2 | -6.2" | 11.7" | 2686 | 4.8% | 37% | 0.421 | 0.083 | 0.0% | 22% | 88.5 | 0.301 |
| SL | 14% | 87.6 | 6.1" | 3.2" | 2447 | 11.1% | 38% | 0.440 | 0.222 | 11.1% | 46% | 92.5 | 0.497 |
| FC | 3% | 88.0 | 8.3" | 1.0" | 2513 | 0.222 | 11.1% |
Scherzer, Max's Arsenal, by Pitch Shape
grouped by velo/break/spin, not label
Why shape beats the label
The table above, grouped by how the pitch moves rather than what it is called.
Two pitchers can both say “slider” and throw very different pitches. Grouping by speed, break and spin pools everyone throwing something physically similar, so the sample is bigger and steadier.
| Shape (mostly) | Usage% | Velo | Vert Brk | Horz Brk | Allowed xwOBA/con | Mesa Jr., Victor: BA | Mesa Jr., Victor: HR% | Mesa Jr., Victor: Hard-Hit% | Mesa Jr., Victor: xwOBA/con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP/FA/SL | 27% | 93.8 | 16.6" | -8.8" | 0.411 | ||||
| FF/SI/FC | 27% | 93.7 | 16.7" | -8.9" | 0.407 | 0.227 | 18.2% | 61% | 0.509 |
| FF/SI/FC | 22% | 92.9 | 16.1" | -8.6" | 0.418 | 0.077 | 0.0% | 25% | 0.153 |
| SI/FF/CH | 19% | 84.5 | 4.6" | -14.3" | 0.282 | 0.286 | 0.0% | 40% | 0.398 |
| CH/FS/FO | 19% | 84.5 | 4.5" | -14.4" | 0.286 | 0.154 | 0.0% | 64% | 0.448 |
| FC/SL/FF | 16% | 87.7 | 6.6" | 3.1" | 0.427 | 0.111 | 5.6% | 45% | 0.417 |
| CU/KC/ST | 14% | 76.0 | -6.8" | 11.7" | 0.427 | 0.158 | 0.0% | 33% | 0.311 |
| ST/SL/CU | 2% | 77.1 | -1.9" | 11.7" | |||||
| SL/ST/CU | 1% | 86.1 | 1.5" | 5.0" | 0.333 | 16.7% | 50% | 0.506 | |
| CH/SI/FS | 0% | 85.4 | 3.5" | -18.0" | 0.385 | 7.7% | 73% | 0.613 |
At-Bat Log
Every plate appearance
One row per plate appearance, newest first. Strikeouts and walks included.
Expected stats say what a batted ball was worth given how hard and at what angle it was hit, whether or not it found a glove.
xBA is blank on strikeouts and walks — there is no batted ball to judge. xwOBA counts them.
76 PA · 30 games · 2026-07-01 to 2026-08-18
13 hits
6 walks
18 strikeouts
39 outs in play
avg exit velo 86.9 mph over 52 tracked
xwOBA 0.300
| Date | Result | Count | Pitch | Velo | Exit Velo | Angle | Dist | Location | xBA | xSLG | xwOBA | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Out line drive | 0-2 | SL | 87.9 | 92.5 | 24° | 335 | CF | 0.149 | 0.288 | 0.183 | Kittredge, Andrew |
| 2026-08-14 | Out fly ball | 1-2 | FF | 92.6 | 91.3 | 53° | 253 | LF | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.003 | Bassitt, Chris |
| 2026-08-14 | Single line drive | 0-1 | CU | 72.0 | 99.5 | 10° | 178 | CF | 0.777 | 0.907 | 0.736 | Bassitt, Chris |
| 2026-08-12 | Walk | 3-2 | SL | 89.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Johnson, Seth |
| 2026-08-12 | Out fly ball | 1-1 | FF | 96.6 | 80.5 | 44° | 266 | LF | 0.014 | 0.014 | 0.013 | Blewett, Scott |
| 2026-08-12 | Out popup | 2-1 | FF | 93.6 | 32.0 | 69° | 40 | Infield | 0.046 | 0.046 | 0.041 | Perkins, Jack |
| 2026-08-11 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | FC | 92.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Tur, Yunior |
| 2026-08-11 | Home Run fly ball | 1-0 | FF | 97.5 | 101.3 | 27° | 412 | CF | 0.651 | 2.224 | 1.179 | Alvarado, Elvis |
| 2026-08-11 | Out fly ball | 1-0 | FF | 93.6 | 93.9 | 59° | 247 | LF gap | 0.020 | 0.031 | 0.022 | Barnett, Mason |
| 2026-08-11 | Out fly ball | 1-1 | FF | 94.6 | 76.2 | 33° | 271 | LF | 0.186 | 0.249 | 0.192 | Barnett, Mason |
| 2026-08-09 | Out line drive | 0-0 | FF | 95.0 | 91.3 | 25° | 318 | RF | 0.134 | 0.257 | 0.165 | Hancock, Emerson |
| 2026-08-09 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 93.7 | 94.8 | -1° | 43 | Infield | 0.317 | 0.348 | 0.292 | Hancock, Emerson |
| 2026-08-09 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | CU | 76.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Hancock, Emerson |
| 2026-08-08 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FF | 96.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Rucker, Michael |
| 2026-08-08 | Home Run fly ball | 1-2 | FF | 97.0 | 105.7 | 27° | 412 | RF | 0.931 | 3.616 | 1.860 | Kirby, George |
| 2026-08-08 | Out popup | 3-2 | FF | 97.1 | 76.3 | 61° | 148 | Infield | 0.026 | 0.035 | 0.028 | Kirby, George |
| 2026-08-07 | Single fly ball | 0-0 | FF | 96.7 | 62.1 | 33° | 203 | RF gap | 0.577 | 0.605 | 0.519 | Domínguez, Seranthony |
| 2026-08-07 | Double fly ball | 1-1 | SL | 87.1 | 95.1 | 25° | 301 | LF corner | 0.203 | 0.463 | 0.274 | Gilbert, Logan |
| 2026-08-07 | Out fly ball | 1-1 | FF | 96.9 | 100.1 | 35° | 355 | LF gap | 0.351 | 1.329 | 0.688 | Gilbert, Logan |
| 2026-08-05 | Sac Bunt ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 95.7 | 45.1 | -45° | 2 | RF corner | — | — | — | Mejia, Juan |
| 2026-08-05 | Out ground ball | 0-2 | CU | 81.0 | 91.9 | -5° | 15 | Infield | 0.210 | 0.248 | 0.189 | Sugano, Tomoyuki |
| 2026-08-04 | Out ground ball | 0-2 | FF | 91.4 | 79.8 | -35° | 4 | RF corner | 0.050 | 0.054 | 0.045 | Hughes, Gabriel |
| 2026-08-04 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | CU | 78.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Hughes, Gabriel |
| 2026-08-03 | Out fly ball | 0-0 | FF | 91.2 | 100.7 | 29° | 412 | CF | 0.597 | 2.175 | 1.134 | Gordon, Tanner |
| 2026-08-03 | Out fly ball | 0-0 | CU | 80.7 | 79.4 | 49° | 219 | RF gap | 0.063 | 0.082 | 0.063 | Gordon, Tanner |
| 2026-08-03 | Out fly ball | 2-0 | FF | 91.3 | 96.5 | 36° | 376 | LF gap | 0.137 | 0.476 | 0.249 | Gordon, Tanner |
| 2026-08-03 | Out line drive | 1-1 | FF | 92.6 | 110.4 | 17° | 340 | RF | 0.691 | 1.472 | 0.906 | Lorenzen, Michael |
| 2026-08-03 | Out fly ball | 0-1 | CU | 83.0 | 90.6 | 50° | 280 | LF gap | 0.006 | 0.010 | 0.007 | Lorenzen, Michael |
| 2026-08-01 | Out fly ball | 1-2 | FF | 95.3 | 97.1 | 25° | 368 | LF gap | 0.274 | 0.647 | 0.387 | Schultz, Noah |
| 2026-07-31 | Out popup | 2-2 | FF | 92.0 | 88.1 | 68° | 130 | Infield | 0.006 | 0.006 | 0.005 | Richards, Trevor |
| 2026-07-31 | Out line drive | 2-1 | FC | 92.3 | 99.5 | 15° | 309 | CF | 0.711 | 0.922 | 0.701 | Fedde, Erick |
| 2026-07-30 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | SL | 88.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Peoples, Ben |
| 2026-07-30 | Out fly ball | 0-2 | FF | 93.6 | 99.7 | 42° | 358 | CF | 0.066 | 0.226 | 0.118 | Gray, Peyton |
| 2026-07-30 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | FF | 90.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Gonzales, Marco |
| 2026-07-28 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FF | 93.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Quantrill, Cal |
| 2026-07-25 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FF | 92.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Dion, Will |
| 2026-07-25 | Walk | 3-2 | FF | 93.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Bibee, Tanner |
| 2026-07-25 | Single ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 92.7 | 41.0 | -41° | 4 | Infield | 0.287 | 0.288 | 0.258 | Bibee, Tanner |
| 2026-07-25 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FF | 94.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Bibee, Tanner |
| 2026-07-23 | Out ground ball | 1-1 | CH | 88.3 | 76.6 | -40° | 3 | Infield | 0.088 | 0.089 | 0.079 | Bieber, Shane |
| 2026-07-22 | Walk | 3-0 | FF | 95.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Little, Brendon |
| 2026-07-22 | Strikeout swinging | 3-2 | FF | 96.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Miles, Spencer |
| 2026-07-22 | Single ground ball | 2-2 | SL | 87.0 | 104.6 | -5° | 12 | RF gap | 0.425 | 0.450 | 0.382 | Miles, Spencer |
| 2026-07-20 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | SL | 90.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Cease, Dylan |
| 2026-07-20 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | SL | 89.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Cease, Dylan |
| 2026-07-19 | Out ground ball | 1-1 | FC | 86.5 | 54.2 | -43° | 2 | Infield | 0.177 | 0.178 | 0.159 | Morán, Jovani |
| 2026-07-19 | Out line drive | 0-1 | CU | 79.9 | 86.8 | 19° | 290 | RF gap | 0.766 | 0.864 | 0.691 | Gray, Sonny |
| 2026-07-19 | Home Run line drive | 1-0 | FC | 87.7 | 108.8 | 15° | 317 | RF gap | 0.671 | 1.095 | 0.737 | Gray, Sonny |
| 2026-07-18 | Out popup | 0-0 | FF | 95.5 | 91.3 | 81° | 51 | Infield | 0.006 | 0.006 | 0.005 | Chapman, Aroldis |
| 2026-07-18 | Out fly ball | 0-1 | FF | 94.9 | 91.0 | 46° | 271 | LF gap | 0.009 | 0.023 | 0.014 | Watson, Ryan |
| 2026-07-18 | Home Run fly ball | 2-1 | SL | 88.9 | 107.7 | 23° | 404 | RF | 0.969 | 3.552 | 1.849 | Sandoval, Patrick |
| 2026-07-18 | Out fly ball | 1-2 | SL | 85.0 | 77.1 | 54° | 225 | RF | 0.069 | 0.093 | 0.069 | Sandoval, Patrick |
| 2026-07-12 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FF | 101.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Muñoz, Andrés |
| 2026-07-12 | Out popup | 1-1 | FF | 94.9 | 83.2 | 72° | 130 | LF corner | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.003 | Rucker, Michael |
| 2026-07-12 | Walk | 3-2 | FF | 96.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Hancock, Emerson |
| 2026-07-10 | Home Run fly ball | 3-2 | SL | 85.3 | 104.3 | 24° | 392 | RF | 0.780 | 2.547 | 1.367 | Castillo, Luis |
| 2026-07-10 | Single line drive | 0-2 | CH | 85.3 | 96.4 | 8° | 155 | RF gap | 0.594 | 0.655 | 0.544 | Castillo, Luis |
| 2026-07-10 | Out popup | 2-2 | SL | 84.8 | 78.4 | 82° | 58 | LF corner | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.003 | Castillo, Luis |
| 2026-07-09 | Strikeout swinging | 0-2 | CU | 81.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Blackburn, Paul |
| 2026-07-07 | Out popup | 0-2 | SL | 85.4 | 59.6 | 77° | 50 | LF corner | 0.009 | 0.012 | 0.011 | Headrick, Brent |
| 2026-07-07 | Home Run fly ball | 3-2 | FF | 93.1 | 99.7 | 40° | 367 | RF corner | 0.154 | 0.572 | 0.303 | Warren, Will |
| 2026-07-05 | Out fly ball | 3-2 | SL | 80.6 | 94.0 | 36° | 341 | CF | 0.089 | 0.298 | 0.163 | Okert, Steven |
| 2026-07-05 | Strikeout swinging | 3-2 | CH | 88.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Lambert, Peter |
| 2026-07-05 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 95.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Lambert, Peter |
| 2026-07-04 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 96.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Pearson, Nate |
| 2026-07-04 | Sac Fly fly ball | 3-2 | FF | 96.7 | 97.9 | 48° | 307 | CF | — | — | 0.032 | Brown, Hunter |
| 2026-07-03 | Out popup | 0-0 | FF | 93.9 | 93.6 | 65° | 170 | LF gap | 0.009 | 0.009 | 0.008 | De Los Santos, Enyel |
| 2026-07-03 | Strikeout swinging | 0-2 | FF | 92.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Arrighetti, Spencer |
| 2026-07-03 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FF | 92.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Arrighetti, Spencer |
| 2026-07-02 | Out popup | 1-0 | FF | 94.4 | 43.4 | 37° | 112 | Infield | 0.137 | 0.141 | 0.128 | Schreiber, John |
| 2026-07-02 | Out popup | 2-2 | FF | 92.6 | 91.3 | 65° | 160 | Infield | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.005 | Dobnak, Randy |
| 2026-07-02 | Out fly ball | 3-1 | FF | 95.8 | 92.3 | 30° | 364 | CF | 0.054 | 0.132 | 0.076 | Kolek, Stephen |
| 2026-07-01 | Single line drive | 2-2 | CH | 88.3 | 96.4 | 11° | 177 | RF | 0.851 | 0.987 | 0.804 | Cuas, Jose |
| 2026-07-01 | Out ground ball | 1-1 | CH | 84.7 | 103.7 | 3° | 73 | Infield | 0.606 | 0.680 | 0.566 | Lugo, Seth |
| 2026-07-01 | Strikeout swinging | 0-2 | FC | 92.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Lugo, Seth |
| 2026-07-01 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 92.4 | 71.9 | -11° | 12 | Infield | 0.057 | 0.058 | 0.054 | Lugo, Seth |