Pitch Mix Analysis
A batter's own numbers by pitch type and location — add a pitcher to see their actual arsenal overlaid on top, and how this batter has done against pitches shaped like it.
2,091 pitches seen
·
0.340 xwOBA against shapes like this arsenal,
vs 0.343 against everything
(-0.003)
·
last 30 games: 0.280
-0.060
on 328 pitches, covering 45% of the arsenal
Pitch familiarity
Pitchers' arsenals are grouped by pitch shape — velocity, break and spin — and weighted by how often this pitcher throws each, so the number describes the arsenal he will face tonight.
Compared against this batter's own mark across every shape he has faced, so “done well” means well for him.
Descriptive — the model does not read it.
Hot Zones
by location · xwOBA on contact (excludes Ks/BBs, so runs higher than a full-PA xwOBA), dimmed cells are too few balls in play to trust
Overall vs RHP
0.260
126p
0.318
119p
0.248
55p
0.332
137p
0.362
147p
0.290
105p
0.402
105p
0.391
128p
0.420
116p
How Marsee, Jakob handles each pitch
Reading these bars
One row per pitch this pitcher throws, ordered by usage. The bar is how this batter has performed against it; the dotted line is his own average from that hand.
Deeper red is better than his usual, deeper blue worse.
Faded rows have too little contact to trust — the count on the right is the sample behind the number.
vs RHP · ordered by usageNo tracked contact against this pitcher's pitches for this batter yet
Nola, Aaron's Arsenal, by Pitch Type
ordered by usage vs. a LHH batter
Matched by pitch name
Left: what the pitcher throws. Right: how this batter has done against that same pitch.
The right-hand columns count only pitches carrying the same label — a slider against a slider — thrown by pitchers with the same handedness.
That is precise but can leave a small sample. The table below groups by how a pitch actually moves instead.
| Pitch | Usage% | Velo | Vert Brk | Horz Brk | Spin | Allowed HR% | Allowed Hard-Hit% | Allowed xwOBA/con | Marsee, Jakob: BA | Marsee, Jakob: HR% | Marsee, Jakob: Hard-Hit% | Marsee, Jakob: Exit Velo | Marsee, Jakob: xwOBA/con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 31% | 78.2 | -10.3" | 14.8" | 2619 | 5.0% | 42% | 0.425 | 0.167 | 0.0% | 50% | 90.2 | 0.455 |
| FF | 30% | 92.2 | 14.7" | -12.9" | 2337 | 9.9% | 50% | 0.428 | 0.167 | 2.2% | 33% | 86.6 | 0.290 |
| CH | 20% | 85.4 | 3.0" | -14.8" | 1573 | 2.6% | 42% | 0.325 | 0.322 | 1.7% | 52% | 86.6 | 0.461 |
| SI | 12% | 91.5 | 8.6" | -17.4" | 2254 | 5.1% | 54% | 0.407 | 0.291 | 0.0% | 40% | 90.7 | 0.347 |
| FC | 6% | 86.3 | 8.0" | -0.0" | 2285 | 6.1% | 58% | 0.495 | 0.264 | 1.9% | 23% | 81.9 | 0.271 |
| SL | 0% | 84.0 | 1.8" | 0.7" | 2309 | 0.130 | 0.0% | 36% | 88.1 | 0.317 |
Nola, Aaron's Arsenal, by Pitch Shape
grouped by velo/break/spin, not label
Why shape beats the label
The table above, grouped by how the pitch moves rather than what it is called.
Two pitchers can both say “slider” and throw very different pitches. Grouping by speed, break and spin pools everyone throwing something physically similar, so the sample is bigger and steadier.
| Shape (mostly) | Usage% | Velo | Vert Brk | Horz Brk | Allowed xwOBA/con | Marsee, Jakob: BA | Marsee, Jakob: HR% | Marsee, Jakob: Hard-Hit% | Marsee, Jakob: xwOBA/con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CU/KC/ST | 30% | 78.2 | -10.4" | 14.8" | 0.425 | 0.320 | 0.0% | 45% | 0.317 |
| FF/SI/FC | 21% | 91.9 | 14.9" | -12.5" | 0.442 | 0.222 | 2.5% | 36% | 0.323 |
| SI/FF/CH | 15% | 91.8 | 9.4" | -16.9" | 0.396 | 0.238 | 0.0% | 43% | 0.313 |
| CH/FS/FO | 14% | 85.2 | 2.5" | -14.4" | 0.304 | 0.265 | 0.0% | 52% | 0.450 |
| CH/SI/FS | 7% | 86.0 | 4.3" | -15.8" | 0.386 | 0.333 | 2.0% | 50% | 0.424 |
| EP/FA/SL | 6% | 93.2 | 15.5" | -13.1" | 0.401 | ||||
| FF/SI/FC | 6% | 93.2 | 15.5" | -13.1" | 0.404 | 0.140 | 2.2% | 26% | 0.268 |
| FC/SL/FF | 6% | 86.4 | 8.1" | -0.1" | 0.495 | 0.214 | 1.4% | 29% | 0.287 |
| SL/ST/CU | 0% | 83.7 | 4.5" | 1.4" | 0.241 | 3.4% | 28% | 0.486 | |
| ST/SL/CU | 0% | 78.8 | -3.8" | 16.4" | 0.300 | 5.0% | 44% | 0.441 |
At-Bat Log
Every plate appearance
One row per plate appearance, newest first. Strikeouts and walks included.
Expected stats say what a batted ball was worth given how hard and at what angle it was hit, whether or not it found a glove.
xBA is blank on strikeouts and walks — there is no batted ball to judge. xwOBA counts them.
96 PA · 30 games · 2026-07-10 to 2026-08-19
17 hits
13 walks
15 strikeouts
51 outs in play
avg exit velo 85.5 mph over 66 tracked
xwOBA 0.293
| Date | Result | Count | Pitch | Velo | Exit Velo | Angle | Dist | Location | xBA | xSLG | xwOBA | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Out line drive | 3-2 | FF | 97.2 | 96.5 | 22° | 350 | CF | 0.271 | 0.564 | 0.357 | Bowlan, Jonathan |
| 2026-08-19 | Out ground ball | 1-0 | FF | 93.6 | 102.5 | -8° | 15 | Infield | 0.351 | 0.364 | 0.335 | Nola, Aaron |
| 2026-08-19 | Out fly ball | 1-0 | FC | 87.2 | 87.7 | 57° | 211 | RF | 0.009 | 0.009 | 0.008 | Nola, Aaron |
| 2026-08-19 | Out popup | 2-2 | SI | 93.3 | 94.7 | 64° | 185 | RF gap | 0.011 | 0.014 | 0.011 | Nola, Aaron |
| 2026-08-18 | Double Play line drive | 1-1 | SI | 98.1 | 60.8 | 12° | 100 | RF corner | 0.204 | 0.237 | 0.191 | Alvarado, José |
| 2026-08-18 | Walk | 3-1 | FC | 88.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Wheeler, Zack |
| 2026-08-18 | Walk | 3-2 | SI | 95.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Wheeler, Zack |
| 2026-08-18 | Out popup | 0-1 | FF | 95.4 | 83.3 | 61° | 156 | Infield | 0.014 | 0.020 | 0.017 | Wheeler, Zack |
| 2026-08-17 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | SI | 91.5 | 98.6 | -20° | 6 | RF corner | 0.146 | 0.161 | 0.133 | Raley, Brooks |
| 2026-08-17 | Strikeout swinging | 3-2 | FF | 97.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Bowlan, Jonathan |
| 2026-08-16 | Walk | 3-2 | FF | 93.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Marinaccio, Ron |
| 2026-08-16 | Out fly ball | 1-0 | FC | 85.6 | 92.9 | 26° | 342 | LF | 0.171 | 0.351 | 0.224 | Marinaccio, Ron |
| 2026-08-16 | Out ground ball | 2-1 | SI | 92.7 | 81.7 | -42° | 3 | Infield | 0.092 | 0.093 | 0.083 | Lodolo, Nick |
| 2026-08-15 | Single ground ball | 2-0 | SI | 98.9 | 103.2 | 4° | 92 | RF | 0.571 | 0.646 | 0.531 | Mey, Luis |
| 2026-08-15 | Single line drive | 0-2 | SI | 92.4 | 103.9 | 7° | 144 | RF | 0.646 | 0.716 | 0.597 | Singer, Brady |
| 2026-08-15 | Incomplete PA | 0-0 | SI | 92.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Singer, Brady |
| 2026-08-15 | Home Run fly ball | 0-0 | FC | 88.8 | 100.3 | 26° | 386 | RF gap | 0.506 | 1.535 | 0.840 | Singer, Brady |
| 2026-08-15 | Single ground ball | 0-0 | SI | 93.4 | 97.4 | -11° | 15 | Infield | 0.195 | 0.224 | 0.182 | Singer, Brady |
| 2026-08-14 | Force Out ground ball | 1-2 | FF | 97.9 | 64.9 | -15° | 9 | Infield | 0.040 | 0.041 | 0.036 | Burns, Chase |
| 2026-08-14 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FF | 99.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Burns, Chase |
| 2026-08-14 | Out line drive | 2-0 | FF | 97.9 | 91.0 | 24° | 326 | RF gap | 0.123 | 0.220 | 0.138 | Burns, Chase |
| 2026-08-13 | Out line drive | 1-2 | SL | 90.3 | 101.1 | 19° | 353 | CF | 0.389 | 0.729 | 0.468 | Ashcraft, Braxton |
| 2026-08-13 | Out ground ball | 1-0 | SI | 96.8 | 97.4 | 3° | 68 | RF corner | 0.523 | 0.584 | 0.489 | Ashcraft, Braxton |
| 2026-08-13 | Incomplete PA | 0-0 | FF | 97.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Ashcraft, Braxton |
| 2026-08-12 | Out line drive | 0-0 | FC | 99.4 | 82.0 | 28° | 275 | LF | 0.094 | 0.118 | 0.085 | Doval, Camilo |
| 2026-08-12 | Out fly ball | 2-2 | SI | 92.7 | 90.2 | 54° | 257 | LF | 0.011 | 0.018 | 0.013 | Bachar, Lake |
| 2026-08-12 | Out ground ball | 0-1 | SL | 90.5 | 77.0 | -3° | 24 | Infield | 0.088 | 0.095 | 0.085 | Bachar, Lake |
| 2026-08-12 | Single line drive | 1-0 | FF | 94.6 | 69.9 | 26° | 228 | RF | 0.991 | 1.047 | 0.899 | Mlodzinski, Carmen |
| 2026-08-11 | Out popup | 0-1 | FF | 96.4 | 64.3 | 74° | 79 | Infield | 0.006 | 0.007 | 0.006 | Ramírez, Yohan |
| 2026-08-11 | Out line drive | 1-2 | SI | 94.8 | 97.3 | 19° | 326 | RF gap | 0.351 | 0.597 | 0.397 | Skenes, Paul |
| 2026-08-11 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 96.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Skenes, Paul |
| 2026-08-09 | Single line drive | 3-2 | FC | 91.4 | 65.9 | 23° | 197 | CF | 0.817 | 0.849 | 0.735 | Watson, Ryan |
| 2026-08-09 | Single ground ball | 0-1 | FF | 91.3 | 28.8 | -39° | 3 | LF corner | 0.281 | 0.282 | 0.253 | Anderson, Shaun |
| 2026-08-09 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | CH | 82.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Rodriguez, Grayson |
| 2026-08-09 | Out ground ball | 1-1 | FF | 94.5 | 101.8 | -14° | 10 | Infield | 0.213 | 0.228 | 0.192 | Rodriguez, Grayson |
| 2026-08-08 | Out popup | 2-2 | FF | 90.5 | 80.2 | 53° | 222 | CF | 0.051 | 0.081 | 0.060 | Kerry, Brett |
| 2026-08-08 | Out line drive | 1-1 | FF | 92.6 | 98.4 | 18° | 315 | RF gap | 0.380 | 0.597 | 0.408 | Kerry, Brett |
| 2026-08-08 | Triple ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 90.3 | 100.2 | 2° | 73 | RF corner | 0.469 | 0.524 | 0.432 | Kerry, Brett |
| 2026-08-08 | Walk | 3-2 | CH | 93.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Ureña, Walbert |
| 2026-08-08 | Out fly ball | 1-0 | FF | 99.8 | 99.1 | 37° | 352 | RF gap | 0.169 | 0.643 | 0.330 | Ureña, Walbert |
| 2026-08-07 | Single fly ball | 1-1 | SL | 87.2 | 73.6 | 30° | 249 | CF | 0.537 | 0.617 | 0.517 | Saucedo, Tayler |
| 2026-08-07 | Single ground ball | 1-0 | SL | 89.4 | 31.0 | -23° | 5 | LF corner | 0.329 | 0.330 | 0.296 | Klassen, George |
| 2026-08-07 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 97.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Klassen, George |
| 2026-08-05 | Out ground ball | 2-0 | SL | 81.4 | 103.0 | 2° | 60 | Infield | 0.514 | 0.578 | 0.479 | Elder, Bryce |
| 2026-08-05 | Double line drive | 3-2 | FC | 87.9 | 81.6 | 14° | 199 | LF gap | 0.869 | 1.013 | 0.831 | Elder, Bryce |
| 2026-08-05 | Walk | 3-2 | SI | 90.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Elder, Bryce |
| 2026-08-04 | Single line drive | 0-1 | FF | 93.9 | 99.6 | 13° | 238 | RF | 0.926 | 1.122 | 0.889 | Iglesias, Raisel |
| 2026-08-04 | Out line drive | 1-1 | SI | 93.1 | 98.3 | 18° | 342 | CF | 0.380 | 0.597 | 0.408 | Dodd, Dylan |
| 2026-08-04 | Out fly ball | 0-1 | SL | 85.5 | 98.6 | 34° | 378 | RF gap | 0.323 | 1.225 | 0.643 | Holmes, Grant |
| 2026-08-04 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 0-2 | SL | 84.5 | 89.2 | -14° | 8 | Infield | 0.143 | 0.156 | 0.129 | Holmes, Grant |
| 2026-08-01 | Out line drive | 3-2 | FF | 88.2 | 87.9 | 27° | 303 | RF | 0.071 | 0.133 | 0.082 | Herget, Kevin |
| 2026-08-01 | Strikeout looking | 1-2 | FF | 96.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Pintaro, Jonathan |
| 2026-07-31 | Out fly ball | 3-1 | SL | 83.5 | 85.3 | 24° | 300 | CF | 0.220 | 0.293 | 0.207 | Curry, Xzavion |
| 2026-07-31 | Double ground ball | 2-1 | FC | 89.3 | 102.6 | 1° | 54 | RF | 0.494 | 0.533 | 0.453 | Senga, Kodai |
| 2026-07-31 | Strikeout looking | 1-2 | FF | 96.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Senga, Kodai |
| 2026-07-30 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | CH | 83.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Williams, Devin |
| 2026-07-30 | Home Run fly ball | 3-0 | FF | 95.4 | 99.7 | 33° | 385 | RF | 0.377 | 1.412 | 0.729 | McLean, Nolan |
| 2026-07-30 | Out ground ball | 0-2 | SI | 94.7 | 82.4 | -4° | 25 | Infield | 0.155 | 0.176 | 0.140 | McLean, Nolan |
| 2026-07-30 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | FF | 96.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | McLean, Nolan |
| 2026-07-29 | Out fly ball | 1-2 | SL | 86.8 | 87.0 | 30° | 276 | LF | 0.037 | 0.079 | 0.051 | Bowlan, Jonathan |
| 2026-07-29 | Walk | 3-2 | SI | 96.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Luzardo, Jesús |
| 2026-07-29 | Sac Bunt ground ball | 0-0 | SI | 93.2 | 38.4 | -42° | 3 | LF corner | — | — | — | Luzardo, Jesús |
| 2026-07-28 | Out ground ball | 1-0 | SI | 96.2 | 39.4 | -22° | 5 | Infield | 0.357 | 0.361 | 0.328 | Alvarado, José |
| 2026-07-28 | Out fly ball | 1-0 | FF | 91.4 | 89.8 | 45° | 296 | LF | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.003 | Nola, Aaron |
| 2026-07-28 | Walk | 3-2 | CH | 85.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Nola, Aaron |
| 2026-07-27 | Out ground ball | 1-0 | SI | 96.5 | 90.6 | 0° | 46 | Infield | 0.293 | 0.334 | 0.271 | Alvarado, José |
| 2026-07-27 | Walk | 3-0 | SI | 89.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Backhus, Kyle |
| 2026-07-26 | Out fly ball | 2-1 | FF | 102.5 | 79.9 | 46° | 237 | LF | 0.017 | 0.017 | 0.015 | Miller, Mason |
| 2026-07-25 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | FC | 89.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Waldron, Matt |
| 2026-07-25 | Walk | 3-2 | FF | 94.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Sears, JP |
| 2026-07-25 | Single ground ball | 0-1 | FC | 91.4 | 97.9 | 3° | 72 | RF | 0.469 | 0.500 | 0.422 | Vásquez, Randy |
| 2026-07-24 | Single ground ball | 1-0 | SI | 96.3 | 76.4 | 1° | 39 | Infield | 0.186 | 0.201 | 0.181 | Peralta, Wandy |
| 2026-07-24 | Out line drive | 2-1 | SL | 89.8 | 98.4 | 7° | 173 | RF gap | 0.594 | 0.662 | 0.547 | Hart, Kyle |
| 2026-07-24 | Strikeout looking | 2-2 | KC | 84.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Márquez, Germán |
| 2026-07-21 | Out line drive | 1-2 | FF | 96.4 | 93.9 | 21° | 296 | LF | 0.203 | 0.342 | 0.222 | Imai, Tatsuya |
| 2026-07-21 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 96.0 | 70.2 | -17° | 9 | Infield | 0.065 | 0.072 | 0.064 | Imai, Tatsuya |
| 2026-07-21 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | SL | 87.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Imai, Tatsuya |
| 2026-07-20 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | SL | 88.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Abreu, Bryan |
| 2026-07-20 | Out ground ball | 2-0 | FF | 95.6 | 92.0 | -16° | 8 | Infield | 0.192 | 0.207 | 0.173 | De Los Santos, Enyel |
| 2026-07-20 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | CH | 85.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Blanco, Ronel |
| 2026-07-19 | Strikeout looking | 1-2 | SL | 85.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Ashby, Aaron |
| 2026-07-19 | Out ground ball | 3-2 | SI | 91.9 | 104.1 | -2° | 35 | Infield | 0.406 | 0.449 | 0.372 | Gasser, Robert |
| 2026-07-17 | Out ground ball | 3-2 | CH | 79.8 | 65.6 | -32° | 4 | Infield | 0.068 | 0.075 | 0.062 | Yoho, Craig |
| 2026-07-17 | Strikeout swinging | 3-2 | SI | 98.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Ashby, Aaron |
| 2026-07-17 | Out popup | 1-0 | FC | 86.9 | 85.7 | 71° | 153 | LF corner | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.003 | Henderson, Logan |
| 2026-07-17 | Out popup | 0-1 | FF | 92.6 | 68.8 | 49° | 209 | RF gap | 0.171 | 0.203 | 0.162 | Henderson, Logan |
| 2026-07-12 | Out fly ball | 1-1 | FF | 98.1 | 91.9 | 52° | 261 | LF | 0.006 | 0.013 | 0.009 | Smith, Cade |
| 2026-07-12 | Out popup | 1-0 | FF | 95.2 | 78.3 | 71° | 110 | Infield | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.007 | Aleman, Franco |
| 2026-07-11 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | SI | 96.6 | 98.2 | -14° | 10 | Infield | 0.213 | 0.228 | 0.192 | Holderman, Colin |
| 2026-07-11 | Out ground ball | 2-0 | SI | 91.3 | 77.1 | 1° | 41 | RF corner | 0.168 | 0.193 | 0.156 | Bibee, Tanner |
| 2026-07-11 | Strikeout looking | 1-2 | FF | 92.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Bibee, Tanner |
| 2026-07-11 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 93.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Bibee, Tanner |
| 2026-07-10 | Out fly ball | 0-2 | FF | 97.4 | 91.9 | 46° | 284 | LF | 0.009 | 0.021 | 0.012 | Smith, Cade |
| 2026-07-10 | Single ground ball | 0-0 | SI | 94.8 | 105.2 | 6° | 139 | RF gap | 0.609 | 0.702 | 0.566 | Holderman, Colin |
| 2026-07-10 | Walk | 3-0 | FF | 93.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Messick, Parker |
| 2026-07-10 | Force Out ground ball | 1-1 | FF | 93.4 | 78.7 | -27° | 5 | Infield | 0.048 | 0.049 | 0.043 | Messick, Parker |