Pitch Mix Analysis
A batter's own numbers by pitch type and location — add a pitcher to see their actual arsenal overlaid on top, and how this batter has done against pitches shaped like it.
Batter: Kelly, Carson
Long and lofted (2)
Pitcher: Dobbins, Hunter (RHP)
filtered for today’s matchup
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2,007 pitches seen
·
0.333 xwOBA against shapes like this arsenal,
vs 0.340 against everything
(-0.007)
·
last 30 games: 0.298
-0.035
on 301 pitches, covering 29% of the arsenal
Pitch familiarity
Pitchers' arsenals are grouped by pitch shape — velocity, break and spin — and weighted by how often this pitcher throws each, so the number describes the arsenal he will face tonight.
Compared against this batter's own mark across every shape he has faced, so “done well” means well for him.
Descriptive — the model does not read it.
Hot Zones
by location · xwOBA on contact (excludes Ks/BBs, so runs higher than a full-PA xwOBA), dimmed cells are too few balls in play to trust
Overall vs RHP
0.338
88p
0.269
91p
0.293
83p
0.318
107p
0.419
163p
0.324
148p
0.360
54p
0.356
138p
0.248
136p
How Kelly, Carson handles each pitch
Reading these bars
One row per pitch this pitcher throws, ordered by usage. The bar is how this batter has performed against it; the dotted line is his own average from that hand.
Deeper red is better than his usual, deeper blue worse.
Faded rows have too little contact to trust — the count on the right is the sample behind the number.
vs RHP · ordered by usageNo tracked contact against this pitcher's pitches for this batter yet
Dobbins, Hunter's Arsenal, by Pitch Type
ordered by usage vs. a RHH batter
Matched by pitch name
Left: what the pitcher throws. Right: how this batter has done against that same pitch.
The right-hand columns count only pitches carrying the same label — a slider against a slider — thrown by pitchers with the same handedness.
That is precise but can leave a small sample. The table below groups by how a pitch actually moves instead.
| Pitch | Usage% | Velo | Vert Brk | Horz Brk | Spin | Allowed HR% | Allowed Hard-Hit% | Allowed xwOBA/con | Kelly, Carson: BA | Kelly, Carson: HR% | Kelly, Carson: Hard-Hit% | Kelly, Carson: Exit Velo | Kelly, Carson: xwOBA/con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FF | 33% | 95.3 | 15.0" | -1.1" | 2377 | 1.6% | 52% | 0.421 | 0.248 | 3.2% | 39% | 89.7 | 0.317 |
| SL | 26% | 87.6 | 1.4" | 6.2" | 2594 | 6.2% | 40% | 0.361 | 0.165 | 2.1% | 27% | 86.4 | 0.250 |
| ST | 20% | 81.9 | 0.5" | 14.8" | 2651 | 5.7% | 22% | 0.264 | 0.196 | 0.0% | 38% | 85.9 | 0.368 |
| SI | 13% | 94.7 | 9.6" | -12.0" | 2217 | 0.0% | 62% | 0.286 | 0.266 | 1.8% | 34% | 84.1 | 0.282 |
| CU | 5% | 79.4 | -11.0" | 6.4" | 2559 | 0.091 | 9.1% | 33% | 83.6 | 0.372 | |||
| FS | 2% | 89.2 | 7.6" | -12.4" | 1950 |
Dobbins, Hunter's Arsenal, by Pitch Shape
grouped by velo/break/spin, not label
Why shape beats the label
The table above, grouped by how the pitch moves rather than what it is called.
Two pitchers can both say “slider” and throw very different pitches. Grouping by speed, break and spin pools everyone throwing something physically similar, so the sample is bigger and steadier.
| Shape (mostly) | Usage% | Velo | Vert Brk | Horz Brk | Allowed xwOBA/con | Kelly, Carson: BA | Kelly, Carson: HR% | Kelly, Carson: Hard-Hit% | Kelly, Carson: xwOBA/con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST/SL/CU | 27% | 83.7 | 0.3" | 12.6" | 0.306 | 0.190 | 3.2% | 52% | 0.388 |
| EP/FA/SL | 25% | 95.9 | 15.5" | -1.8" | 0.422 | ||||
| FF/SI/FC | 25% | 95.9 | 15.5" | -1.8" | 0.427 | 0.237 | 3.8% | 39% | 0.350 |
| FC/SL/FF | 17% | 89.6 | 4.2" | 5.0" | 0.359 | 0.253 | 1.3% | 30% | 0.292 |
| SI/FF/CH | 11% | 94.6 | 8.9" | -12.8" | 0.282 | 0.258 | 2.1% | 34% | 0.282 |
| FF/SI/FC | 8% | 93.7 | 14.3" | -3.1" | 0.324 | 0.292 | 4.2% | 44% | 0.303 |
| SL/ST/CU | 6% | 84.1 | 0.4" | 7.4" | 0.352 | 0.191 | 6.4% | 22% | 0.320 |
| CU/KC/ST | 5% | 79.4 | -10.6" | 6.9" | 0.062 | 0.0% | 25% | 0.269 | |
| CH/SI/FS | 1% | 88.8 | 6.3" | -13.6" | 0.143 | 0.0% | 67% | 0.351 | |
| CH/FS/FO | 0% | 89.1 | 6.3" | -11.4" |
At-Bat Log
Every plate appearance
One row per plate appearance, newest first. Strikeouts and walks included.
Expected stats say what a batted ball was worth given how hard and at what angle it was hit, whether or not it found a glove.
xBA is blank on strikeouts and walks — there is no batted ball to judge. xwOBA counts them.
96 PA · 30 games · 2026-06-30 to 2026-08-19
18 hits
8 walks
18 strikeouts
52 outs in play
avg exit velo 84.7 mph over 70 tracked
xwOBA 0.281
| Date | Result | Count | Pitch | Velo | Exit Velo | Angle | Dist | Location | xBA | xSLG | xwOBA | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Out ground ball | 3-1 | FF | 92.0 | 89.6 | 2° | 54 | Infield | 0.292 | 0.350 | 0.274 | Urquidy, José |
| 2026-08-19 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 3-2 | SI | 95.4 | 104.4 | 1° | 54 | Infield | 0.486 | 0.551 | 0.456 | Newcomb, Sean |
| 2026-08-18 | Double line drive | 1-0 | FF | 91.1 | 80.6 | 19° | 211 | LF corner | 0.980 | 1.102 | 0.910 | Richards, Trevor |
| 2026-08-17 | Force Out ground ball | 1-0 | SI | 100.4 | 75.1 | -15° | 8 | Infield | 0.045 | 0.048 | 0.040 | Hicks, Jordan |
| 2026-08-17 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | FF | 91.9 | 85.4 | -24° | 4 | Infield | 0.051 | 0.051 | 0.046 | Richards, Trevor |
| 2026-08-17 | Single ground ball | 1-2 | FF | 94.9 | 97.9 | 6° | 127 | RF | 0.600 | 0.714 | 0.578 | Schweitzer, Tyler |
| 2026-08-17 | Out line drive | 2-2 | SL | 88.7 | 99.1 | 22° | 353 | RF gap | 0.371 | 0.779 | 0.483 | Castillo, Luis |
| 2026-08-17 | Out ground ball | 3-2 | SI | 95.7 | 97.2 | 2° | 57 | Infield | 0.480 | 0.536 | 0.449 | Castillo, Luis |
| 2026-08-14 | Single ground ball | 2-0 | SI | 93.4 | 76.2 | -75° | 1 | Infield | 0.259 | 0.259 | 0.233 | Strzelecki, Peter |
| 2026-08-14 | Strikeout looking | 2-2 | FF | 95.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Liberatore, Matthew |
| 2026-08-14 | Strikeout swinging | 3-2 | SL | 86.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Liberatore, Matthew |
| 2026-08-12 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | ST | 78.6 | 77.2 | 3° | 55 | Infield | 0.132 | 0.153 | 0.119 | Williams, Trevor |
| 2026-08-12 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 99.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Cruz, Yovanny |
| 2026-08-12 | Strikeout looking | 3-2 | SI | 93.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Bird, Jake |
| 2026-08-12 | Out ground ball | 1-0 | FF | 91.4 | 93.9 | 5° | 91 | Infield | 0.494 | 0.549 | 0.458 | Kent, Jackson |
| 2026-08-11 | Out fly ball | 3-2 | CU | 80.5 | 80.3 | 32° | — | LF gap | 0.051 | 0.100 | 0.063 | Mikolas, Miles |
| 2026-08-11 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | SL | 90.5 | 69.2 | -22° | 5 | Infield | 0.031 | 0.031 | 0.028 | Mikolas, Miles |
| 2026-08-11 | Out popup | 2-2 | SL | 89.3 | 92.5 | 67° | 124 | Infield | 0.009 | 0.009 | 0.008 | Kranick, Max |
| 2026-08-11 | Fielder's Choice ground ball | 0-0 | SI | 93.1 | 54.4 | -8° | 16 | Infield | 0.078 | 0.078 | 0.070 | Irvin, Jake |
| 2026-08-11 | Single popup | 3-2 | SI | 93.0 | 62.0 | 43° | 187 | RF | 0.283 | 0.328 | 0.267 | Irvin, Jake |
| 2026-08-08 | Strikeout looking | 2-2 | ST | 82.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Schreiber, John |
| 2026-08-08 | Double line drive | 0-0 | FF | 93.5 | 94.3 | 20° | 319 | LF gap | 0.303 | 0.516 | 0.342 | Lugo, Seth |
| 2026-08-08 | Strikeout looking | 2-2 | SI | 91.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Lugo, Seth |
| 2026-08-07 | Out ground ball | 3-2 | FF | 91.9 | 48.9 | -17° | 8 | Infield | 0.099 | 0.099 | 0.089 | Black, Mason |
| 2026-08-07 | Out ground ball | 2-1 | FF | 93.3 | 82.6 | -43° | 3 | Infield | 0.072 | 0.072 | 0.065 | Black, Mason |
| 2026-08-07 | Out popup | 3-1 | SI | 91.2 | 74.2 | 62° | 160 | Infield | 0.006 | 0.007 | 0.005 | Cuas, Jose |
| 2026-08-06 | Out line drive | 0-1 | ST | 81.7 | 73.7 | 18° | 188 | CF | 0.929 | 1.021 | 0.864 | Lee, Chase |
| 2026-08-05 | Single line drive | 0-1 | FF | 96.6 | 102.3 | 9° | 224 | CF | 0.754 | 0.882 | 0.714 | Phillips, Evan |
| 2026-08-05 | Out fly ball | 0-0 | FF | 96.8 | 80.8 | 48° | 276 | CF | 0.026 | 0.038 | 0.026 | Hurt, Kyle |
| 2026-08-05 | Single line drive | 3-2 | FF | 91.8 | 102.7 | 13° | 218 | LF | 0.906 | 1.194 | 0.904 | Lauer, Eric |
| 2026-08-05 | Out line drive | 1-1 | FF | 90.7 | 98.0 | 22° | 323 | LF | 0.311 | 0.632 | 0.393 | Lauer, Eric |
| 2026-08-03 | Out line drive | 1-0 | FF | 97.2 | 97.0 | 18° | 328 | RF gap | 0.431 | 0.693 | 0.477 | Hernández, Jonathan |
| 2026-08-03 | Walk | 3-2 | SL | 88.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Scott, Tanner |
| 2026-08-03 | Out ground ball | 0-2 | FF | 95.3 | 51.9 | 26° | 131 | Infield | 0.154 | 0.164 | 0.139 | Wrobleski, Justin |
| 2026-08-03 | Home Run fly ball | 1-1 | SL | 85.8 | 104.6 | 34° | 394 | LF | 0.726 | 2.825 | 1.440 | Wrobleski, Justin |
| 2026-08-03 | Out fly ball | 2-2 | FF | 96.7 | 86.7 | 36° | 308 | CF | 0.026 | 0.054 | 0.036 | Wrobleski, Justin |
| 2026-08-01 | Single line drive | 2-1 | FF | 99.4 | 74.6 | 21° | 226 | LF gap | 0.983 | 1.027 | 0.885 | Cruz, Yovanny |
| 2026-08-01 | Out fly ball | 0-1 | SL | 91.4 | 76.8 | 33° | 281 | CF | 0.146 | 0.217 | 0.158 | Chivilli, Angel |
| 2026-08-01 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | CU | 74.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Fried, Max |
| 2026-07-30 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 1-0 | SL | 88.6 | 73.9 | -10° | 9 | Infield | 0.036 | 0.036 | 0.032 | Stanek, Ryne |
| 2026-07-30 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | SL | 87.4 | 98.8 | -6° | 21 | LF | 0.261 | 0.286 | 0.235 | Pallante, Andre |
| 2026-07-30 | Out line drive | 1-1 | SI | 95.6 | 84.2 | 25° | 268 | RF gap | 0.177 | 0.259 | 0.175 | Pallante, Andre |
| 2026-07-30 | Single fly ball | 0-0 | FF | 93.6 | 68.0 | 30° | 219 | RF gap | 0.966 | 0.991 | 0.870 | Pallante, Andre |
| 2026-07-28 | Single ground ball | 0-0 | SI | 95.8 | 98.5 | 7° | 153 | RF gap | 0.620 | 0.697 | 0.577 | Svanson, Matt |
| 2026-07-28 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 1-2 | CU | 82.3 | 68.5 | -16° | 7 | Infield | 0.045 | 0.045 | 0.040 | Strzelecki, Peter |
| 2026-07-28 | Out fly ball | 2-1 | ST | 76.0 | 95.7 | 50° | 304 | LF gap | 0.006 | 0.013 | 0.009 | Bruihl, Justin |
| 2026-07-28 | Out fly ball | 2-2 | SL | 85.9 | 92.5 | 30° | 343 | RF gap | 0.117 | 0.323 | 0.189 | Graceffo, Gordon |
| 2026-07-28 | Walk | 3-2 | ST | 82.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | McGreevy, Michael |
| 2026-07-27 | Out fly ball | 2-2 | ST | 82.0 | 83.0 | 37° | 303 | LF gap | 0.014 | 0.031 | 0.019 | Dobbins, Hunter |
| 2026-07-27 | Out fly ball | 0-1 | ST | 82.3 | 88.6 | 39° | 323 | LF | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | Dobbins, Hunter |
| 2026-07-27 | Single ground ball | 2-2 | SI | 95.1 | 101.2 | 6° | 123 | CF | 0.609 | 0.678 | 0.562 | Dobbins, Hunter |
| 2026-07-27 | Single ground ball | 2-1 | FF | 93.8 | 91.9 | 1° | 62 | RF gap | 0.352 | 0.396 | 0.317 | Liberatore, Matthew |
| 2026-07-27 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | SL | 86.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Liberatore, Matthew |
| 2026-07-26 | Strikeout looking | 2-2 | SI | 94.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Mlodzinski, Carmen |
| 2026-07-26 | Strikeout looking | 3-2 | SL | 91.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Ashcraft, Braxton |
| 2026-07-26 | Out ground ball | 0-1 | CU | 86.5 | 54.6 | -39° | 2 | LF corner | 0.126 | 0.126 | 0.113 | Ashcraft, Braxton |
| 2026-07-26 | Strikeout looking | 2-2 | SI | 96.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Ashcraft, Braxton |
| 2026-07-24 | Out fly ball | 2-2 | SL | 89.4 | 91.7 | 45° | 287 | RF | 0.009 | 0.025 | 0.014 | Jones, Jared |
| 2026-07-24 | Out popup | 0-0 | FF | 96.5 | 89.9 | 76° | 48 | Infield | 0.006 | 0.009 | 0.006 | Jones, Jared |
| 2026-07-22 | Out line drive | 1-1 | FF | 95.5 | 95.5 | 21° | 286 | RF | 0.226 | 0.444 | 0.278 | Finnegan, Kyle |
| 2026-07-22 | Out popup | 1-0 | SL | 85.3 | 86.2 | 69° | 97 | Infield | 0.009 | 0.016 | 0.011 | Montero, Keider |
| 2026-07-21 | Out ground ball | 0-1 | SI | 94.6 | 61.5 | -5° | 23 | Infield | 0.070 | 0.076 | 0.067 | Hanifee, Brenan |
| 2026-07-21 | Strikeout looking | 2-2 | FS | 86.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Madden, Ty |
| 2026-07-21 | Walk | 3-0 | FF | 93.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Madden, Ty |
| 2026-07-21 | Single ground ball | 2-2 | CU | 78.7 | 98.8 | -6° | 20 | RF gap | 0.261 | 0.286 | 0.235 | Valdez, Framber |
| 2026-07-19 | Out line drive | 3-1 | SI | 93.9 | 100.4 | 22° | 360 | CF | 0.411 | 0.929 | 0.555 | Adams, Travis |
| 2026-07-19 | Out popup | 0-0 | SL | 87.4 | 65.1 | 68° | 95 | Infield | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | Matthews, Zebby |
| 2026-07-19 | Single ground ball | 0-2 | SL | 86.6 | 91.8 | 6° | 92 | CF | 0.471 | 0.533 | 0.429 | Matthews, Zebby |
| 2026-07-17 | Out fly ball | 3-2 | FF | 95.2 | 97.0 | 28° | 379 | RF gap | 0.266 | 0.720 | 0.399 | Gómez, Yoendrys |
| 2026-07-17 | Out ground ball | 2-1 | SI | 92.3 | 41.8 | -6° | 17 | Infield | 0.195 | 0.204 | 0.181 | Nance, Tommy |
| 2026-07-17 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | ST | 76.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Ober, Bailey |
| 2026-07-12 | Out line drive | 2-1 | SI | 91.9 | 99.8 | 17° | 290 | CF | 0.489 | 0.794 | 0.542 | Lowder, Rhett |
| 2026-07-12 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | CU | 86.9 | 76.9 | -7° | 15 | Infield | 0.075 | 0.078 | 0.072 | Johnson, Pierce |
| 2026-07-12 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 0-1 | SI | 95.6 | 84.3 | -5° | 25 | Infield | 0.147 | 0.178 | 0.161 | Petty, Chase |
| 2026-07-12 | Walk | 3-0 | FF | 90.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Abbott, Andrew |
| 2026-07-12 | Strikeout looking | 2-2 | FF | 92.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Abbott, Andrew |
| 2026-07-11 | Strikeout swinging | 3-2 | ST | 82.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Garcia, Julian |
| 2026-07-11 | Home Run fly ball | 2-0 | SI | 92.9 | 103.0 | 31° | 410 | LF gap | 0.714 | 2.770 | 1.432 | Lodolo, Nick |
| 2026-07-11 | Single ground ball | 1-2 | FF | 93.1 | 93.4 | 7° | 124 | CF | 0.520 | 0.573 | 0.481 | Lodolo, Nick |
| 2026-07-11 | Out ground ball | 1-1 | FF | 93.6 | 87.2 | 7° | 117 | Infield | 0.509 | 0.614 | 0.504 | Lodolo, Nick |
| 2026-07-10 | Out ground ball | 0-1 | FF | 97.2 | 94.2 | 2° | 77 | Infield | 0.429 | 0.548 | 0.431 | Burke, Brock |
| 2026-07-10 | Force Out ground ball | 0-1 | FF | 98.6 | 89.2 | -23° | 6 | Infield | 0.067 | 0.067 | 0.065 | Greene, Hunter |
| 2026-07-10 | Out line drive | 2-2 | FF | 99.5 | 86.1 | 22° | 282 | RF | 0.380 | 0.433 | 0.342 | Greene, Hunter |
| 2026-07-09 | Out ground ball | 1-1 | ST | 76.9 | 67.3 | -55° | 2 | Infield | 0.264 | 0.264 | 0.238 | Rogers, Trevor |
| 2026-07-09 | Strikeout looking | 1-2 | ST | 78.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Rogers, Trevor |
| 2026-07-08 | Out ground ball | 1-2 | FF | 93.3 | 76.5 | -45° | 3 | Infield | 0.105 | 0.105 | 0.094 | Suárez, Albert |
| 2026-07-08 | Walk | 3-2 | SL | 90.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Garcia, Rico |
| 2026-07-08 | Strikeout looking | 3-2 | SI | 93.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Kremer, Dean |
| 2026-07-05 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 94.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Liberatore, Matthew |
| 2026-07-05 | Strikeout swinging | 0-2 | SL | 85.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Liberatore, Matthew |
| 2026-07-05 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 94.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Liberatore, Matthew |
| 2026-07-03 | Strikeout swinging | 3-2 | FF | 97.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Stanek, Ryne |
| 2026-07-03 | Out fly ball | 1-2 | ST | 84.9 | 99.1 | 37° | 375 | LF gap | 0.169 | 0.643 | 0.330 | Rajcic, Max |
| 2026-07-03 | Force Out ground ball | 2-1 | SI | 96.8 | 78.2 | 2° | 53 | Infield | 0.187 | 0.218 | 0.168 | Pallante, Andre |
| 2026-07-03 | Single ground ball | 2-2 | SI | 96.2 | 101.4 | -15° | 7 | Infield | 0.169 | 0.175 | 0.160 | Pallante, Andre |
| 2026-06-30 | Out fly ball | 1-2 | FF | 91.5 | 87.8 | 27° | 341 | CF | 0.071 | 0.133 | 0.082 | Sears, JP |