Pitch Mix Analysis
A batter's own numbers by pitch type and location — add a pitcher to see their actual arsenal overlaid on top, and how this batter has done against pitches shaped like it.
Batter: Arenado, Nolan
Long and lofted
Pitcher: Tolle, Payton (LHP)
filtered for today’s matchup
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973 pitches seen
·
0.362 xwOBA against shapes like this arsenal,
vs 0.314 against everything
(+0.048)
Pitch familiarity
Pitchers' arsenals are grouped by pitch shape — velocity, break and spin — and weighted by how often this pitcher throws each, so the number describes the arsenal he will face tonight.
Compared against this batter's own mark across every shape he has faced, so “done well” means well for him.
Descriptive — the model does not read it.
Hot Zones
by location · xwOBA on contact (excludes Ks/BBs, so runs higher than a full-PA xwOBA), dimmed cells are too few balls in play to trust
Overall vs LHP
23p
0.151
40p
0.351
51p
0.346
36p
0.488
54p
0.329
48p
0.508
49p
0.440
53p
0.292
48p
How Arenado, Nolan handles each pitch
Reading these bars
One row per pitch this pitcher throws, ordered by usage. The bar is how this batter has performed against it; the dotted line is his own average from that hand.
Deeper red is better than his usual, deeper blue worse.
Faded rows have too little contact to trust — the count on the right is the sample behind the number.
vs LHP · ordered by usageNo tracked contact against this pitcher's pitches for this batter yet
Tolle, Payton's Arsenal, by Pitch Type
ordered by usage vs. a RHH batter
Matched by pitch name
Left: what the pitcher throws. Right: how this batter has done against that same pitch.
The right-hand columns count only pitches carrying the same label — a slider against a slider — thrown by pitchers with the same handedness.
That is precise but can leave a small sample. The table below groups by how a pitch actually moves instead.
| Pitch | Usage% | Velo | Vert Brk | Horz Brk | Spin | Allowed HR% | Allowed Hard-Hit% | Allowed xwOBA/con | Arenado, Nolan: BA | Arenado, Nolan: HR% | Arenado, Nolan: Hard-Hit% | Arenado, Nolan: Exit Velo | Arenado, Nolan: xwOBA/con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FF | 52% | 96.2 | 15.7" | 9.1" | 2272 | 3.7% | 31% | 0.344 | 0.361 | 6.6% | 31% | 85.5 | 0.385 |
| FC | 18% | 88.8 | 7.2" | -2.6" | 2363 | 1.6% | 33% | 0.266 | |||||
| SI | 16% | 94.9 | 9.4" | 16.8" | 2263 | 2.1% | 46% | 0.332 | 0.188 | 0.0% | 55% | 90.0 | 0.272 |
| CU | 9% | 82.9 | -4.9" | -6.7" | 2435 | 2.0% | 39% | 0.314 | 0.250 | 0.0% | 31% | 85.6 | 0.386 |
| CH | 5% | 89.0 | 1.1" | 10.0" | 1017 | 7.1% | 45% | 0.374 | 0.204 | 4.1% | 31% | 87.7 | 0.273 |
| SL | 1% | 88.2 | 3.8" | -1.4" | 2365 | 0.150 | 5.0% | 33% | 90.9 | 0.363 |
Tolle, Payton's Arsenal, by Pitch Shape
grouped by velo/break/spin, not label
Why shape beats the label
The table above, grouped by how the pitch moves rather than what it is called.
Two pitchers can both say “slider” and throw very different pitches. Grouping by speed, break and spin pools everyone throwing something physically similar, so the sample is bigger and steadier.
| Shape (mostly) | Usage% | Velo | Vert Brk | Horz Brk | Allowed xwOBA/con | Arenado, Nolan: BA | Arenado, Nolan: HR% | Arenado, Nolan: Hard-Hit% | Arenado, Nolan: xwOBA/con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP/FA/SL | 31% | 96.8 | 15.9" | 9.2" | 0.314 | 0.370 | 11.1% | 39% | 0.483 |
| CH/SI/FS | 30% | 96.9 | 15.9" | 9.2" | 0.320 | 0.176 | 0.0% | 27% | 0.234 |
| FF/SI/FC | 30% | 96.9 | 15.9" | 9.2" | 0.321 | 0.379 | 10.3% | 38% | 0.469 |
| FF/SI/FC | 22% | 95.2 | 15.3" | 8.7" | 0.352 | 0.314 | 2.9% | 31% | 0.333 |
| FC/SL/FF | 18% | 88.8 | 7.1" | -2.6" | 0.286 | 0.214 | 7.1% | 36% | 0.309 |
| SI/FF/CH | 16% | 94.9 | 9.4" | 16.8" | 0.361 | 0.217 | 0.0% | 54% | 0.278 |
| SL/ST/CU | 8% | 83.1 | -3.9" | -6.1" | 0.344 | 0.235 | 0.0% | 23% | 0.332 |
| CH/FS/FO | 5% | 89.0 | 1.1" | 10.0" | 0.374 | 0.320 | 12.0% | 39% | 0.371 |
| CU/KC/ST | 1% | 81.9 | -8.0" | -8.6" | 0.235 | 0.0% | 33% | 0.379 | |
| ST/SL/CU | 0% | 84.5 | -3.5" | -7.8" | 0.308 | 0.0% |
At-Bat Log
Every plate appearance
One row per plate appearance, newest first. Strikeouts and walks included.
Expected stats say what a batted ball was worth given how hard and at what angle it was hit, whether or not it found a glove.
xBA is blank on strikeouts and walks — there is no batted ball to judge. xwOBA counts them.
105 PA · 30 games · 2026-07-12 to 2026-08-19
25 hits
13 walks
1 hit by pitch
15 strikeouts
51 outs in play
avg exit velo 85.7 mph over 76 tracked
xwOBA 0.333
| Date | Result | Count | Pitch | Velo | Exit Velo | Angle | Dist | Location | xBA | xSLG | xwOBA | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Single line drive | 2-2 | FF | 95.3 | 51.1 | 29° | 143 | Infield | 0.143 | 0.151 | 0.129 | Morán, Jovani |
| 2026-08-19 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | SL | 87.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Miller, Erik |
| 2026-08-19 | Single fly ball | 0-0 | SI | 93.5 | 94.7 | 25° | 343 | LF gap | 0.203 | 0.463 | 0.274 | Weissert, Greg |
| 2026-08-19 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | CU | 86.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Tolle, Payton |
| 2026-08-19 | Strikeout swinging | 0-2 | SI | 96.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Tolle, Payton |
| 2026-08-16 | Out ground ball | 0-1 | SL | 81.4 | 90.1 | 3° | 75 | LF corner | 0.349 | 0.405 | 0.326 | Elder, Bryce |
| 2026-08-16 | Out fly ball | 0-1 | FC | 87.3 | 90.8 | 28° | 314 | RF | 0.071 | 0.141 | 0.085 | Elder, Bryce |
| 2026-08-15 | Walk | 3-1 | SI | 94.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Young, Danny |
| 2026-08-15 | Home Run fly ball | 1-1 | CH | 78.5 | 99.5 | 33° | 387 | LF | 0.297 | 1.031 | 0.536 | Suter, Brent |
| 2026-08-15 | Home Run fly ball | 2-0 | SL | 84.1 | 98.0 | 32° | 389 | LF | 0.286 | 1.004 | 0.529 | Holmes, Grant |
| 2026-08-15 | Out ground ball | 1-2 | FF | 94.1 | 97.6 | -10° | 18 | Infield | 0.198 | 0.223 | 0.178 | Holmes, Grant |
| 2026-08-14 | Out popup | 3-2 | SI | 94.2 | 72.5 | 69° | 109 | Infield | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | Dodd, Dylan |
| 2026-08-14 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | SL | 84.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Sale, Chris |
| 2026-08-14 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | SL | 80.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Sale, Chris |
| 2026-08-14 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | SL | 80.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Sale, Chris |
| 2026-08-12 | Force Out ground ball | 2-2 | CU | 78.4 | 83.6 | -24° | 6 | LF corner | 0.032 | 0.032 | 0.029 | Bernardino, Brennan |
| 2026-08-12 | Walk | 3-0 | SL | 85.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Herget, Jimmy |
| 2026-08-12 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | SL | 89.0 | 62.8 | -36° | 3 | Infield | 0.067 | 0.067 | 0.060 | Feltner, Ryan |
| 2026-08-12 | Out fly ball | 0-0 | SI | 93.9 | 94.3 | 47° | 294 | CF | 0.009 | 0.024 | 0.014 | Feltner, Ryan |
| 2026-08-12 | Out popup | 0-2 | FF | 96.1 | 74.8 | 44° | 231 | CF | 0.171 | 0.224 | 0.179 | Feltner, Ryan |
| 2026-08-11 | Single ground ball | 1-2 | SL | 84.7 | 99.8 | 1° | 65 | Infield | 0.483 | 0.524 | 0.446 | Romano, Jordan |
| 2026-08-11 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 0-0 | FC | 88.6 | 88.5 | -3° | 24 | Infield | 0.192 | 0.225 | 0.182 | Sugano, Tomoyuki |
| 2026-08-11 | Out fly ball | 0-0 | SI | 93.1 | 97.9 | 34° | 377 | CF | 0.254 | 0.953 | 0.502 | Sugano, Tomoyuki |
| 2026-08-11 | Triple line drive | 1-2 | SI | 92.8 | 102.3 | 13° | 297 | LF gap | 0.903 | 1.169 | 0.892 | Sugano, Tomoyuki |
| 2026-08-10 | Out fly ball | 3-2 | SL | 86.2 | 77.6 | 49° | 235 | LF gap | 0.074 | 0.114 | 0.086 | Agnos, Zach |
| 2026-08-10 | Single fly ball | 3-2 | FC | 90.7 | 69.1 | 29° | 227 | LF | 0.951 | 0.977 | 0.856 | Agnos, Zach |
| 2026-08-10 | Out popup | 0-2 | FF | 91.1 | 79.5 | 85° | 25 | LF corner | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | Hughes, Gabriel |
| 2026-08-10 | Home Run fly ball | 2-1 | FF | 92.4 | 103.4 | 24° | 382 | LF | 0.720 | 2.291 | 1.244 | Hughes, Gabriel |
| 2026-08-09 | Out ground ball | 1-1 | SL | 89.3 | 51.0 | -35° | 3 | Infield | 0.129 | 0.129 | 0.116 | Hernández, Jonathan |
| 2026-08-09 | Out popup | 0-0 | FF | 95.7 | 73.0 | 85° | 36 | LF corner | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.003 | Phillips, Evan |
| 2026-08-09 | Out fly ball | 1-0 | SI | 93.5 | 91.5 | 32° | 330 | LF corner | 0.054 | 0.151 | 0.080 | Wrobleski, Justin |
| 2026-08-09 | Walk | 3-2 | SL | 89.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Wrobleski, Justin |
| 2026-08-08 | Single line drive | 1-0 | FF | 96.5 | 95.1 | 16° | 260 | LF | 0.691 | 0.831 | 0.636 | Hurt, Kyle |
| 2026-08-08 | Out fly ball | 3-2 | FC | 93.1 | 91.1 | 56° | 259 | LF gap | 0.009 | 0.011 | 0.009 | Yamamoto, Yoshinobu |
| 2026-08-08 | Out fly ball | 2-2 | FC | 89.1 | 82.3 | 45° | 274 | RF gap | 0.023 | 0.042 | 0.031 | Yamamoto, Yoshinobu |
| 2026-08-08 | Out popup | 1-1 | FC | 91.8 | 64.4 | 69° | 97 | RF corner | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | Yamamoto, Yoshinobu |
| 2026-08-07 | Strikeout swinging | 3-2 | SL | 86.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Scott, Tanner |
| 2026-08-07 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FF | 102.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Henriquez, Edgardo |
| 2026-08-07 | Home Run fly ball | 0-0 | FF | 97.2 | 95.8 | 28° | 370 | LF | 0.257 | 0.821 | 0.447 | Sasaki, Roki |
| 2026-08-06 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | SL | 88.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Miller, Mason |
| 2026-08-06 | Out popup | 0-0 | FF | 98.7 | 77.2 | 88° | 19 | RF corner | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | Rodriguez, Bradgley |
| 2026-08-06 | Out fly ball | 2-2 | FF | 95.8 | 91.8 | 37° | 331 | RF gap | 0.034 | 0.108 | 0.061 | Buehler, Walker |
| 2026-08-06 | Out popup | 2-2 | SL | 88.0 | 75.3 | 74° | 65 | Infield | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | Buehler, Walker |
| 2026-08-04 | Home Run fly ball | 1-0 | FF | 94.5 | 102.0 | 29° | 400 | LF | 0.663 | 2.439 | 1.265 | Márquez, Germán |
| 2026-08-04 | Out fly ball | 2-2 | SL | 86.1 | 73.2 | 45° | 221 | RF | 0.209 | 0.251 | 0.197 | Vásquez, Randy |
| 2026-08-04 | Out popup | 3-2 | FF | 95.9 | 84.7 | 64° | 150 | RF corner | 0.006 | 0.006 | 0.005 | Vásquez, Randy |
| 2026-08-03 | Single ground ball | 2-1 | SI | 97.0 | 101.6 | 7° | 154 | RF gap | 0.683 | 0.752 | 0.630 | Peralta, Wandy |
| 2026-08-03 | Walk | 3-2 | CH | 87.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | King, Michael |
| 2026-08-03 | Out popup | 0-1 | CH | 86.1 | 88.6 | 68° | 121 | Infield | 0.009 | 0.015 | 0.012 | King, Michael |
| 2026-08-02 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 98.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Smith, Cade |
| 2026-08-02 | Hit By Pitch | 1-0 | SI | 94.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.729 | Yoho, Craig |
| 2026-08-01 | Home Run fly ball | 1-0 | CH | 80.1 | 104.7 | 31° | 388 | LF | 0.814 | 3.237 | 1.660 | Dion, Will |
| 2026-08-01 | Walk | 3-1 | SL | 89.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Gaddis, Hunter |
| 2026-08-01 | Single ground ball | 0-1 | CU | 85.1 | 101.4 | 3° | 84 | LF corner | 0.531 | 0.607 | 0.496 | Holderman, Colin |
| 2026-08-01 | Out ground ball | 2-2 | CH | 86.0 | 91.9 | -19° | 5 | Infield | 0.089 | 0.098 | 0.080 | Messick, Parker |
| 2026-08-01 | Force Out ground ball | 0-1 | CH | 87.5 | 94.3 | -4° | 18 | Infield | 0.213 | 0.238 | 0.193 | Messick, Parker |
| 2026-07-31 | Out ground ball | 0-1 | CH | 78.4 | 62.0 | -42° | 3 | Infield | 0.150 | 0.150 | 0.135 | Dion, Will |
| 2026-07-31 | Out popup | 0-0 | FC | 86.6 | 63.5 | 82° | 32 | LF corner | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | Bibee, Tanner |
| 2026-07-31 | Out ground ball | 2-2 | SI | 93.8 | 88.7 | 0° | 49 | Infield | 0.267 | 0.304 | 0.240 | Bibee, Tanner |
| 2026-07-29 | Force Out ground ball | 1-0 | SL | 89.4 | 95.9 | -20° | 4 | Infield | 0.132 | 0.135 | 0.119 | Jones, Jared |
| 2026-07-29 | Out fly ball | 0-1 | FF | 97.1 | 95.1 | 53° | 297 | LF | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.005 | Jones, Jared |
| 2026-07-29 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | SL | 89.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Jones, Jared |
| 2026-07-28 | Strikeout looking | 3-2 | FF | 90.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Marinaccio, Ron |
| 2026-07-28 | Double ground ball | 2-2 | FF | 91.6 | 96.0 | -7° | 20 | LF corner | 0.208 | 0.229 | 0.187 | Eisert, Brandon |
| 2026-07-28 | Single ground ball | 1-0 | FF | 99.5 | 81.7 | 9° | 119 | LF | 0.426 | 0.477 | 0.396 | Chandler, Bubba |
| 2026-07-28 | Single line drive | 2-2 | SL | 92.8 | 79.9 | 25° | 243 | RF corner | 0.431 | 0.540 | 0.410 | Chandler, Bubba |
| 2026-07-26 | Out ground ball | 0-2 | SL | 88.1 | 76.0 | -65° | 1 | Infield | 0.283 | 0.283 | 0.255 | Beeter, Clayton |
| 2026-07-26 | Out popup | 2-2 | FF | 87.4 | 88.0 | 56° | 221 | LF corner | 0.011 | 0.014 | 0.012 | Cosgrove, Tom |
| 2026-07-26 | Walk | 3-2 | SL | 84.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Cornelio, Riley |
| 2026-07-26 | Out ground ball | 0-0 | SI | 94.4 | 62.0 | 3° | 52 | Infield | 0.126 | 0.155 | 0.125 | Mikolas, Miles |
| 2026-07-26 | Out ground ball | 2-1 | SL | 89.7 | 96.8 | 6° | 99 | Infield | 0.649 | 0.734 | 0.614 | Mikolas, Miles |
| 2026-07-25 | Out ground ball | 2-1 | FF | 97.4 | 102.0 | 0° | 35 | Infield | 0.500 | 0.573 | 0.472 | Beeter, Clayton |
| 2026-07-25 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 0-0 | FC | 88.6 | 102.1 | -2° | 26 | Infield | 0.386 | 0.415 | 0.365 | Griffin, Foster |
| 2026-07-25 | Out ground ball | 0-1 | FC | 88.7 | 91.8 | 5° | 83 | Infield | 0.503 | 0.572 | 0.468 | Griffin, Foster |
| 2026-07-25 | Walk | 3-0 | FF | 89.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Griffin, Foster |
| 2026-07-24 | Walk | 3-0 | SL | 88.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Ribalta, Orlando |
| 2026-07-24 | Out popup | 3-2 | FF | 91.2 | 82.4 | 84° | 31 | RF corner | 0.006 | 0.006 | 0.005 | Littell, Zack |
| 2026-07-24 | Out ground ball | 3-2 | FF | 91.8 | 61.0 | -4° | 21 | Infield | 0.065 | 0.065 | 0.058 | Palmquist, Carson |
| 2026-07-23 | Single line drive | 1-2 | SI | 95.8 | 93.8 | 9° | 161 | LF gap | 0.611 | 0.717 | 0.579 | Graceffo, Gordon |
| 2026-07-23 | Single line drive | 3-2 | FC | 92.0 | 69.0 | 20° | 182 | RF | 0.834 | 0.868 | 0.751 | Svanson, Matt |
| 2026-07-22 | Walk | 3-1 | FC | 89.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Tur, Yunior |
| 2026-07-22 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 95.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Jump, Gage |
| 2026-07-22 | Home Run fly ball | 0-0 | FF | 95.2 | 100.1 | 32° | 396 | LF | 0.434 | 1.605 | 0.832 | Jump, Gage |
| 2026-07-22 | Walk | 3-1 | FF | 96.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | Jump, Gage |
| 2026-07-21 | Single fly ball | 2-2 | FF | 97.0 | 72.2 | 26° | 244 | CF | 0.920 | 0.981 | 0.840 | Medina, Luis |
| 2026-07-21 | Strikeout swinging | 1-2 | FF | 99.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Alvarado, Elvis |
| 2026-07-21 | Out popup | 1-1 | FF | 94.2 | 64.1 | 52° | 172 | LF gap | 0.057 | 0.072 | 0.056 | Basso, Brady |
| 2026-07-21 | Out line drive | 1-2 | CH | 91.2 | 62.7 | 24° | 175 | RF gap | 0.603 | 0.640 | 0.543 | Perkins, Jack |
| 2026-07-20 | Strikeout swinging | 3-2 | CU | 74.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | Harris, Hogan |
| 2026-07-20 | Out popup | 0-1 | SL | 85.7 | 59.2 | 69° | 86 | Infield | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | Medina, Luis |
| 2026-07-20 | Double line drive | 2-2 | FF | 91.7 | 106.2 | 15° | 251 | LF corner | 0.683 | 1.102 | 0.755 | Springs, Jeffrey |
| 2026-07-20 | Grounded Into DP ground ball | 1-1 | CH | 80.5 | 86.3 | -28° | 3 | Infield | 0.041 | 0.047 | 0.037 | Springs, Jeffrey |
| 2026-07-19 | Home Run fly ball | 1-1 | SL | 88.5 | 102.4 | 25° | 384 | LF | 0.660 | 2.125 | 1.144 | Graceffo, Gordon |
| 2026-07-19 | Out ground ball | 1-0 | SL | 88.2 | 95.4 | 0° | 50 | Infield | 0.323 | 0.376 | 0.304 | Stanek, Ryne |
| 2026-07-19 | Out ground ball | 1-0 | SL | 88.3 | 90.4 | -5° | 21 | Infield | 0.179 | 0.200 | 0.166 | Pallante, Andre |
| 2026-07-18 | Out fly ball | 3-2 | FF | 97.6 | 94.6 | 41° | 316 | LF | 0.020 | 0.063 | 0.031 | May, Dustin |
| 2026-07-18 | Double line drive | 0-0 | SI | 96.8 | 101.8 | 12° | 207 | LF | 0.963 | 1.197 | 0.936 | May, Dustin |
| 2026-07-17 | Walk | 3-1 | SI | 97.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | O'Brien, Riley |
| 2026-07-17 | Strikeout looking | 1-2 | SI | 91.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | McGreevy, Michael |
| 2026-07-17 | Out ground ball | 3-2 | SI | 92.6 | 102.8 | -2° | 29 | Infield | 0.420 | 0.473 | 0.391 | McGreevy, Michael |
| 2026-07-17 | Strikeout swinging | 2-2 | CU | 79.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.000 | McGreevy, Michael |
| 2026-07-12 | Out fly ball | 2-2 | FF | 96.7 | 96.5 | 31° | 374 | CF | 0.251 | 0.863 | 0.460 | Phillips, Evan |
| 2026-07-12 | Out ground ball | 0-1 | SI | 102.3 | 65.1 | 6° | 71 | Infield | 0.174 | 0.195 | 0.157 | Henriquez, Edgardo |
| 2026-07-12 | Double line drive | 1-1 | FF | 94.5 | 104.7 | 20° | 378 | LF gap | 0.594 | 1.295 | 0.793 | Sheehan, Emmet |
| 2026-07-12 | Out ground ball | 3-2 | CH | 86.2 | 58.9 | -35° | 2 | LF corner | 0.091 | 0.094 | 0.082 | Sheehan, Emmet |