Today's Picks
About these picks
The day's highest-rated bets, priced where a market was captured. This app does not
place bets.
real — a price captured today.
recent — that player's average price for this bet over
the last 7 days.
illustrative — no market price, so the model's own fair
price. Zero edge by definition.
recent — that player's average price for this bet over the last 7 days.
illustrative — no market price, so the model's own fair price. Zero edge by definition.
2026-10-17 · top 10 per outcome
Today's slate implies 3.25 runs/team on average across 1 game, 14% below the 30-day norm (3.79) -- a typical day for hitters leaguewide.
Top 10 per market on 2026-10-15: 2026-10-15 Full Model Performance →
- Home Run 1/10 thin slate · 4 home runs, -1.9 SD
- Hit 4/10 thin slate · 22 hits, -2.0 SD
- 2+ Total Bases 3/10 thin slate · 13 extra-base hits, -1.8 SD
- Walk 3/10 thin slate · 10 walks, -2.0 SD
Picks by Top Strategies
Today's picks under the 5 best-performing strategies on Betting Performance, ranked by ROI.
+87% ROI over 57 slips · ranked by model probability
-
Chase DeLauter 38% +169vs Nick Martinez
-
Steven Kwan 34% +200vs Nick Martinez
-
Nathaniel Lowe 25% +235vs Nick Martinez
+69% ROI over 108 pairs · ranked by edge
-
Chase DeLauter +3.0pp +169vs Nick Martinez
-
Steven Kwan +2.7pp +200vs Nick Martinez
-
Austin Hedges +0.9pp +325vs Nick Martinez
+65% ROI over 44 slips · ranked by edge
-
Chase DeLauter +3.0pp +169vs Nick Martinez
-
Steven Kwan +2.7pp +200vs Nick Martinez
+65% ROI over 44 pairs · ranked by edge
-
Chase DeLauter +3.0pp +169vs Nick Martinez
-
Steven Kwan +2.7pp +200vs Nick Martinez
+58% ROI over 55 slips · ranked by edge
-
Steven Kwan +14.3pp -225vs Nick Martinez
-
Chase DeLauter +12.8pp -200vs Nick Martinez
-
Austin Hedges +12.3pp +145vs Nick Martinez
Best price
Of each market's top picks tonight, the one the market is pricing most generously — and why it stands out.
Each market's top 5 picks by probability, then whichever the market prices most generously.
one per market · from that market's top 5| Player | Stat | Odds | Model | Market | Edge | 1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Steven Kwan
· #1 of the top 5
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Hit | -225 | 79.2% | 64.8% | +14.3pp | 1.44 |
| Jo Adell · #1 of the top 5 | Home Run | +825 | 15.5% | 10.1%* | +5.4pp | 9.25 |
|
Chase DeLauter
· #3 of the top 5
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
2+ Total Bases | +158 | 39.6% | 36.2% | +3.4pp | 2.58 |
|
Chase DeLauter
· #1 of the top 5
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Walk | +169 | 37.5% | 34.5% | +3.0pp | 2.69 |
Top Picks
The model's most likely picks for each outcome, before any comparison to the market
The naive picker takes the same top 10, ranked only by each hitter's own rate over his last 30 games.
Over 78 live slates: model 17.2%, naive 14.7%, random name 10.4%.
| Player | Pitcher | Model prob | Odds
Which price is this?
The median across every book quoting the market, not the best available. Book count is in the Source column. |
Source | vs arsenal (career, xSLG)
vs arsenal
His xSLG against pitches shaped like the ones tonight's starter throws (career), and the gap versus his own overall figure. |
Hot hand
Hot hand
The strongest change in his last 30 games against his own last 100. |
Edge vs market
Edge vs market
The model's probability minus what the market's price implies. Positive means the model rates it likelier. |
1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell CLE * | Nick Martinez TB | 15.5% | +825 | real 2 books | .691 +.004 30g .431 | steady | +5.4pp | 9.25 |
| Junior Caminero TB
*
cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Shawn Armstrong CLE | 13.2% | +525 | real 3 books | .633 -.021 | against: Chase rate +14% | -1.7pp | 6.25 |
| Patrick Bailey CLE
*
3 HR last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 13.1% | +850 | real 2 books | .579 +.050 | steady | +3.2pp | 9.50 |
| Nathaniel Lowe CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 12.4% | +875 | real 2 books | .587 +.008 30g .434 | steady | +2.8pp | 9.75 |
| Chase DeLauter CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 12.1% | +875 | real 2 books | .528 +.020 30g .465 | Bat speed +1% | +2.5pp | 9.75 |
| Travis Bazzana CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 11.7% | +1000 | real 2 books | .476 +.013 30g .548 | Barrel rate +61% | +3.2pp | 11.00 |
| Angel Martínez CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 10.2% | +801 | recent 3d avg | .450 | Bat speed +2% | -0.2pp | 9.01 |
| José Ramírez CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 9.6% | +825 | real 2 books | .484 30g .375 | against: Exit velo -2% | -0.5pp | 9.25 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. TB
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Shawn Armstrong CLE | 9.5% | +738 | real 2 books | .566 -.039 | steady | -1.7pp | 8.38 |
| Jonathan Aranda TB
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Shawn Armstrong CLE | 8.6% | +525 | real 3 books | .787 +.126 | steady | -6.3pp | 6.25 |
| Jo Adell CLE * | Nick Martinez TB | 15.5% | +825 | real 2 books | .691 +.004 30g .431 | steady | +5.4pp | 9.25 |
| Patrick Bailey CLE
*
3 HR last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 13.1% | +850 | real 2 books | .579 +.050 | steady | +3.2pp | 9.50 |
| Travis Bazzana CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 11.7% | +1000 | real 2 books | .476 +.013 30g .548 | Barrel rate +61% | +3.2pp | 11.00 |
| Nathaniel Lowe CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 12.4% | +875 | real 2 books | .587 +.008 30g .434 | steady | +2.8pp | 9.75 |
| Chase DeLauter CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 12.1% | +875 | real 2 books | .528 +.020 30g .465 | Bat speed +1% | +2.5pp | 9.75 |
The naive picker takes the same top 10, ranked only by each hitter's own rate over his last 30 games.
Over 78 live slates: model 68.1%, naive 59.6%, random name 56.6%.
| Player | Pitcher | Model prob | Odds
Which price is this?
The median across every book quoting the market, not the best available. Book count is in the Source column. |
Source | vs arsenal (career, xBA)
vs arsenal
His xBA against pitches shaped like the ones tonight's starter throws (career), and the gap versus his own overall figure. |
Hot hand
Hot hand
The strongest change in his last 30 games against his own last 100. |
Edge vs market
Edge vs market
The model's probability minus what the market's price implies. Positive means the model rates it likelier. |
1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 79.2% | -225 | real 4 books | .320 +.013 30g .355 | against: Barrel rate -100% | +14.3pp | 1.44 |
| Chase DeLauter CLE
*
8 hits last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 75.1% | -200 | real 4 books | .362 +.030 30g .338 | Bat speed +1% | +12.8pp | 1.50 |
| José Ramírez CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 73.3% | -191 | real 4 books | .318 30g .283 | against: Exit velo -2% | +11.8pp | 1.52 |
| Jo Adell CLE * | Nick Martinez TB | 71.2% | -177 | real 4 books | .355 -.003 30g .313 | steady | +11.6pp | 1.57 |
| Travis Bazzana CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 67.5% | -150 | real 5 books | .311 +.014 30g .345 | Barrel rate +61% | +11.7pp | 1.67 |
| Nathaniel Lowe CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 66.3% | -157 | real 4 books | .346 +.003 30g .334 | steady | +9.5pp | 1.64 |
| Yandy Díaz TB
*
8 hits last 10 |
Shawn Armstrong CLE | 66.1% | -238 | real 4 books | .332 30g .304 | steady | +0.2pp | 1.42 |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 59.8% | -127 | real 4 books | .322 +.016 | against: Barrel rate -56% | +7.4pp | 1.78 |
| Patrick Bailey CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot contact stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 57.3% | -126 | real 4 books | .336 +.011 | steady | +5.1pp | 1.79 |
| Junior Caminero TB * | Shawn Armstrong CLE | 55.9% | -190 | real 4 books | .334 -.005 | against: Chase rate +14% | -5.2pp | 1.53 |
| Steven Kwan CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 79.2% | -225 | real 4 books | .320 +.013 30g .355 | against: Barrel rate -100% | +14.3pp | 1.44 |
| Chase DeLauter CLE
*
8 hits last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 75.1% | -200 | real 4 books | .362 +.030 30g .338 | Bat speed +1% | +12.8pp | 1.50 |
| Austin Hedges CLE
cold contact stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 50.5% | +145 | recent 1d avg | .256 -.002 | Chase rate -16% | +12.3pp | 2.45 |
| José Ramírez CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 73.3% | -191 | real 4 books | .318 30g .283 | against: Exit velo -2% | +11.8pp | 1.52 |
| Travis Bazzana CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 67.5% | -150 | real 5 books | .311 +.014 30g .345 | Barrel rate +61% | +11.7pp | 1.67 |
The naive picker takes the same top 10, ranked only by each hitter's own rate over his last 30 games.
Over 78 live slates: model 43.3%, naive 35.4%, random name 27.2%.
| Player | Pitcher | Model prob | Odds
Which price is this?
The median across every book quoting the market, not the best available. Book count is in the Source column. |
Source | chase rate (30g)
chase rate
No walk-specific version of the vs-arsenal column above exists yet -- the pitch-shape splits it's built from cover batted-ball outcomes only (build_pitch_splits.py drops walks before aggregating). Chase rate is this project's own documented walk-skill proxy instead: his own rate of swinging outside the zone, and the pitcher's own rate of getting batters to, both over the last 30 games -- not a joint figure the way the other markets get. |
Hot hand
Hot hand
The strongest change in his last 30 games against his own last 100. |
Edge vs market
Edge vs market
The model's probability minus what the market's price implies. Positive means the model rates it likelier. |
1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DeLauter CLE
*
5 walks last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 37.5% | +169 | real 2 books | 20.2% chase pitcher 32.3% | Bat speed +1% | +3.0pp | 2.69 |
| Steven Kwan CLE
*
5 walks last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 33.6% | +200 | real 3 books | 18.9% chase pitcher 32.3% | against: Barrel rate -100% | +2.7pp | 3.00 |
| Nathaniel Lowe CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 25.2% | +235 | real 3 books | 24.9% chase pitcher 32.3% | steady | -2.6pp | 3.35 |
| José Ramírez CLE
*
5 walks last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 23.0% | +228 | real 2 books | 27.3% chase pitcher 32.3% | against: Exit velo -2% | -5.4pp | 3.27 |
| Austin Hedges CLE
*
5 walks last 10 |
Nick Martinez TB | 22.8% | +325 | recent 1d avg | 21.7% chase pitcher 32.3% | Chase rate -16% | +0.9pp | 4.25 |
| Jo Adell CLE * | Nick Martinez TB | 22.2% | +261 | real 2 books | 32.2% chase pitcher 32.3% | steady | -3.6pp | 3.61 |
| Travis Bazzana CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 22.0% | +257 | real 3 books | 30.5% chase pitcher 32.3% | Barrel rate +61% | -4.2pp | 3.57 |
| Patrick Bailey CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 21.8% | +306 | real 2 books | 29.4% chase pitcher 32.3% | steady | -1.3pp | 4.06 |
| Jonathan Aranda TB
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Shawn Armstrong CLE | 19.3% | +141 | real 3 books | 30.9% chase pitcher 30.3% | steady | -19.5pp | 2.41 |
| Junior Caminero TB * | Shawn Armstrong CLE | 19.2% | +142 | real 2 books | 38.3% chase pitcher 30.3% | against: Chase rate +14% | -19.0pp | 2.42 |
| Chase DeLauter CLE
*
5 walks last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 37.5% | +169 | real 2 books | 20.2% chase pitcher 32.3% | Bat speed +1% | +3.0pp | 2.69 |
| Steven Kwan CLE
*
5 walks last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 33.6% | +200 | real 3 books | 18.9% chase pitcher 32.3% | against: Barrel rate -100% | +2.7pp | 3.00 |
| Austin Hedges CLE
*
5 walks last 10 |
Nick Martinez TB | 22.8% | +325 | recent 1d avg | 21.7% chase pitcher 32.3% | Chase rate -16% | +0.9pp | 4.25 |
| Patrick Bailey CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 21.8% | +306 | real 2 books | 29.4% chase pitcher 32.3% | steady | -1.3pp | 4.06 |
| Nathaniel Lowe CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Nick Martinez TB | 25.2% | +235 | real 3 books | 24.9% chase pitcher 32.3% | steady | -2.6pp | 3.35 |
The naive picker takes the same top 10, ranked only by each hitter's own rate over his last 30 games.
Over 78 live slates: model 39.6%, naive 33.5%, random name 31.8%.
| Player | Pitcher | Model prob | Odds
Which price is this?
The median across every book quoting the market, not the best available. Book count is in the Source column. |
Source | vs arsenal (career, xSLG)
vs arsenal
His xSLG against pitches shaped like the ones tonight's starter throws (career), and the gap versus his own overall figure. |
Hot hand
Hot hand
The strongest change in his last 30 games against his own last 100. |
Edge vs market
Edge vs market
The model's probability minus what the market's price implies. Positive means the model rates it likelier. |
1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Bailey CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 40.7% | +146 | illustrative | .579 +.050 | steady | — | 2.46 |
| Jo Adell CLE * | Nick Martinez TB | 40.2% | +150 | real 2 books | .691 +.004 30g .431 | steady | +2.8pp | 2.50 |
| Chase DeLauter CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 39.6% | +158 | real 2 books | .528 +.020 30g .465 | Bat speed +1% | +3.4pp | 2.58 |
| José Ramírez CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 39.0% | +152 | real 2 books | .484 30g .375 | against: Exit velo -2% | +2.0pp | 2.52 |
| Steven Kwan CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 38.2% | +150 | real 6 books | .428 +.031 30g .432 | against: Barrel rate -100% | +0.8pp | 2.50 |
| Nathaniel Lowe CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 36.2% | +176 | illustrative | .587 +.008 30g .434 | steady | — | 2.76 |
| Travis Bazzana CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 34.9% | +187 | illustrative | .476 +.013 30g .548 | Barrel rate +61% | — | 2.87 |
| Angel Martínez CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 29.2% | +243 | illustrative | .450 | Bat speed +2% | — | 3.43 |
| Junior Caminero TB
cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Shawn Armstrong CLE | 29.0% | +146 | real 5 books | .633 -.021 | against: Chase rate +14% | -9.1pp | 2.46 |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 26.9% | +272 | illustrative | .456 +.013 | against: Barrel rate -56% | — | 3.72 |
| Chase DeLauter CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 39.6% | +158 | real 2 books | .528 +.020 30g .465 | Bat speed +1% | +3.4pp | 2.58 |
| Jo Adell CLE * | Nick Martinez TB | 40.2% | +150 | real 2 books | .691 +.004 30g .431 | steady | +2.8pp | 2.50 |
| José Ramírez CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 39.0% | +152 | real 2 books | .484 30g .375 | against: Exit velo -2% | +2.0pp | 2.52 |
| Steven Kwan CLE
*
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Nick Martinez TB | 38.2% | +150 | real 6 books | .428 +.031 30g .432 | against: Barrel rate -100% | +0.8pp | 2.50 |
| Junior Caminero TB
cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Shawn Armstrong CLE | 29.0% | +146 | real 5 books | .633 -.021 | against: Chase rate +14% | -9.1pp | 2.46 |